BJP faces secular challenge in UP

After many ifs and buts, finally the Samajwadi Party and the Congress have entered into an alliance, agreeing to contest 298 Assembly seats, leaving 105 seats for the Congress. What looked like uncertain at numerous moments during last few days has finally been materialised. This was possible only after the intervention of the Congress chief Sonia Gandhi and SP’s new and undisputed boss and current chief minister Akhilesh Yadav. Mrs Gandhi and Mr Akhilesh Yadav personally seemed to have intervened because this alliance was necessary to put up a strong contest against the BJP in Uttar Pradesh. The BJP was no less anxious about this alliance. A divided Opposition (if alliance had not materialised) would have certainly put the BJP ahead of all others in the electoral race in Uttar Pradesh. It would certainly have been the frontrunner; the single-largest party if not getting the requisite majority to form the government. The fate of BJP depends more on how other parties go into these elections rather than its own strength. This alliance seems to have changed the political fortunes of the political parties in UP.

If the SP-Congress secular alliance clicks at the ground level, this could be a frontrunner in the forthcoming electoral contest in Uttar Pradesh, with strong possibility of the BJP emerging as the main Opposition party and the BSP at number three. This alliance would help in consolidating the votebank of the Congress and the SP, which could easily fetch winning numbers. The Yadavs, who have voted for the SP in large numbers in the past elections, will polarise more sharply in favour of this alliance keeping in mind the winnability factor. This alliance will now be perceived as a real challenger. Muslims would consolidate behind this alliance and vote in large numbers. This will also prevent splitting of the Muslims votes between the two. The Muslims, who constitute nearly 18 per cent of total voters will sharply polarise in favour of the SP-Congress alliance. The recognition of cycle as the symbol for the Akhilesh Yadav-led SP was the first assurance to them, but the alliance with the Congress would hardly leave any doubt among them about who is more suitably placed to defeat the BJP in the state.

There are 73 Assembly constituencies where Muslims form more than 30 per cent of the total electorate while in another 70 Assembly constituencies, Muslims are between 20-30 per cent of total voters. In a three-way contest, party getting little over 30 per cent votes would emerge victorious. A sharply polarised Muslim vote in favour of the alliance can make a huge difference in these 140 Assembly constituencies. It is true that Congress has been out of power in the state for nearly 27 years and has not been able to perform well during various Lok Sabha elections held during this period, except for the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. Yet, it still commands roughly 10 per cent votes. It is reasonable to assume that those who have voted for the Congress in its worst times are the loyal supporters of the party. The alliance of the SP-Congress would help in transferring the votes of loyal Congress supporters to the SP. Studies indicate that parties find it easier to transfer the votes of their loyal supporters compared to their add-on voters. The SP may also be able to transfer votes of its loyal Yadav supporters to the Congress. So both the parties stand to gain from this alliance.

This alliance of the SP and the Congress may also help in mobilising the non-Jatav dalit voters in its favour. Studies by CSDS have clearly indicated that the Jatavs still remains sharply polarised in favour of the BSP, but the recent elections have witnessed splitting of the non-Jatav dalit votes. They did vote for the BJP in sizeable numbers during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, but there is a huge possibility of them voting for the SP-Congress alliance in forthcoming Assembly elections. After all, the shift amongst various communities of voters, including the non-Jatav dalits towards the BJP in 2014 was largely due to Narendra Modi and not that much for the party. Results of various Assembly elections held after the 2014 Lok Sabha elections have clearly indicated a movement of the dalits away from the BJP to state-based parties with Bihar being the latest example. There is no reason to believe why at least non-Jatav dalits will not vote for the alliance in sizeable numbers. Besides consolidating the non-Yadav, the other non-Kurmi OBC votes, which used to get divided between the SP and Congress, will also consolidate with coming together of these two parties.

While there is a possibility of counter-polarisation in favour of the BJP since Muslims will vote in favour of the alliance, this counter-polarisation has its limits as various section of voters are already polarised — Yadavs in favour of this alliance, dalits and Jatavs in particular with the BSP, Jats in favour of Ajit Singh-led Rashtriya Lok Dal. Clearly, there hardly remains any community sizeable enough to make a difference even if there is a counter-polarisation. Whether alliance or no alliance, the upper castes are already in favour of the BJP. They hardly have a choice. With recent statement by RSS leader Manmohan Vaidya on the issue of reservations, the BJP may not find easy to mobilise the OBC and the non-Jatav salits. With this alliance, the BJP has certainly been pushed on the backfoot and that too overnight.