K.C. Singh | Ties with Dhaka: Domestic politics & diplomacy clash

Endorsing of close allies, while disregarding their domestic politics, has a long history.

The United States often held its nose to back despicable authoritarian governments for geopolitical advantage. One US President justified it on the grounds that the ruler was, after all, “our son of a bitch”. The US has as a consequence suffered occasionally. The 1979 ouster of the Shah of Iran by Islamist forces led by Ayatollah Khomeini, then exiled in France, is a prime example. It upended the “twin pillars” American policy, using Iran and Saudi Arabia to stabilise the Gulf, after the British exit in 1971. The US is still wrestling to achieve that.

Perhaps the Indian government got blindsided by its domestic majoritarian bias, which aligned with a Muslim majority nation battling Islamist elements. The irony of supporting secularism in the neighbourhood while ignoring it at home was missed. The US had been warning Bangladesh about democratic regression, sanctioning its elite police unit in 2021 and a former Army chief in 2024. India saw it as unnecessary meddling in a nation that it felt was on the right track.

Sheikh Hasina ruled for 20 of the past 28 years, including being in power continuously since 2009. During 2000-16, Bangladesh became a model of economic growth. The population in extreme poverty fell by two-thirds. Many indices topped India’s, including per capita at market prices. Sheikh Hasina also managed to defang the Jamaat-e-Islami, which opposed the nation’s independence and collaborated with the Pakistani military. It was banned after independence in 1971, when Sheikh Hasina’s father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman formed the first government. The citizenship of its leader Ghulam Azam was cancelled and he fled abroad. After the assassination of Mujib in 1975, the Jamaat resumed activities. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) of Begum Khaleda Zia, widow of an assassinated former Army chief and President, aligned with the Jamaat.

This combination is now back in the reckoning with the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus unshackling the BNP and Jamaat leaders. Immediately after Sheikh Hasina’s self-exile in India, her party Awami League’s senior members and cadres were attacked and arrested, with nearly 1,000 dying. A three-member International Crimes Tribunal is now prosecuting those allegedly involved in killings of protesters,

especially students. Amongst those arrested are 11 ministers, one judge and a senior bureaucrat. December 17 is the new deadline for the tribunal’s award, which has issued warrants for Sheikh Hasina and 45 others on October 17. In fact, the tribunal explained the delay due to making the verdict compatible with the extradition treaty between India and Bangladesh. An extradition request may become a new bilateral dispute.

Therefore, the arrest of Chinmoy Krishna Das Brahmachari, formerly belonging to Iskcon, on a sedition charge reflects popular anti-India sentiment, now metamorphosing into anti-Hinduism. The Indian government asking the Bangladesh government to protect minorities sits poorly alongside slogans in Maharashtra electioneering of “Katengay to Batengay”. Prime Minister Narendra Modi correctly modified it but without condemning it. More Hindu priests have been arrested subsequently.

Bangladesh has an estimated 10,000 Indian citizens, besides 14 million Hindus.

Unlike in western India, where Punjabi Muslims abandoned their language and culture to dominate Pakistan, Bengali Muslims remained attached to their language and culture. The Awami League drew support from this vast majority.

But in recent years, as Bangladesh’s economic miracle faltered and Sheikh Hasina’s authoritarianism worsened. the popular sentiment swung against her secular coalition.

There are reports of Pakistan becoming more active, but China is best positioned after the exit of India-friendly Sheikh Hasina. While China is Bangladesh’s largest trading partner, in South Asia India takes that credit. Over the last eight years, India extended four lines of credit, totalling $8 billion. On March 18, 2023, the Prime Ministers of both countries inaugurated remotely the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline, carrying high-speed diesel. On November 1, 2023, two rail connectivity projects and the Maitree Super Thermal Plant were also

inaugurated. Five pre-1965 rail links were rehabilitated. Bangladesh is importing 1160 MW of power from India. Invited to the India-hosted G-20 summit in September 2023, Sheikh Hasina signed three memoranda of understanding on agricultural research, digital payments and cultural exchanges. Thus, the Indian strategy to help Sheikh Hasina’s rule was to bolster Bangladesh economically and increase connectivity, power and military links.

Internationally, Bangladesh is arguing that its government protects Hindus. Their permanent representative in Geneva, speaking at the 17th session of the UN Forum on Minority Issues, said: “The entire society of Bangladesh came forward to protect its minorities following our long tradition of communal harmony”. The security of every citizen remains, he added, “the cornerstone of the interim government of Bangladesh”. However, following the death of a Muslim lawyer, in protests when bail was denied to Chinmoy by a Chittagong court, 31 Hindus have been named as suspects.

If an interim government led by a pro-West Nobel laureate is unable to control the increasing communal polarisation, the situation under a likely BNP-Jamaat government may be worse. The United States still has leverage as Bangladesh needs the $4.7 billion IMF bailout. The European Union can also lobby as it is Bangladesh’s largest export destination. In addition, the tariff concessions offered by them end in 2029. Japan remains the biggest donor to a now beleaguered nation. Naturally everyone awaits the Donald Trump presidency to see what role, if any, the US plays to guide Bangladesh back to responsible and democratic governance. The BJP’s own increasingly majoritarian and authoritarian regime is ill equipped to preach moderation, human rights and democracy in a nation that sees it as complicit in the Sheikh Hasina-created mess. A student leader from the protests reflects the dangerous polarisation, saying that Iskcon is an extremist organisation working with India to “plot against us”. With the youth having turned against the ousted Awami League regime, India too faces their wrath.

This writer has long maintained that foreign and domestic policies cannot be in separate silos. Their conflict last affected India’s relations with the Maldives. Rudyard Kipling wrote that “East is East, and West is West, and never the twain shall meet”.

So far, the BJP has managed to keep diplomacy and domestic politics distinct. It seems the “twain” has again overlapped in Bangladesh, another South Asian nation.