Manish Tewari | Why AI warfare must be tempered with humanity

The Rise of AI and Emerging Technologies: The integration of autonomous weapon systems (AWS) into modern combat represents a profound transformation in warfare. These systems, including unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and AI-driven ground robots, can identify and engage targets without human intervention. Equipped with advanced sensors and AI algorithms, AWS enhances real-time decision-making, boosts surveillance, and delivers precision strikes while minimising risks to human personnel.

A chilling example occurred in Libya in March 2020, where kamikaze drones autonomously targeted and destroyed a convoy of trucks. Designed to detonate on impact, these drones executed the attack without human commands, underscoring the ethical complexities of such technologies.

Swarming drone technology is another game-changer. Using AI, multiple drones can coordinate seamlessly to overwhelm defences or gather intelligence. Ukraine’s use of inexpensive cardboard drones to inflict significant damage on Russian airfields highlights the disruptive power of low-cost, accessible military innovations.

Israel’s deployment of the “Lavender” AI system during operations in Gaza demonstrated its ability to analyze vast data, identify targets, and execute coordinated strikes. Dubbed the “first AI war”, this marked a new era of machine-driven decision-making in conflict zones.

The influence of technology extends to cyber warfare also. Cutting-edge tools detect and neutralise threats at unprecedented speeds, protecting critical infrastructure. Predictive analytics and machine learning are also reshaping logistics, command decisions, and the anticipation of enemy strategies. As these technologies become more accessible, they are leveling the playing field by mitigating the handicap of asymmetry, empowering smaller states, semi-state and non-state actors while challenging established power archetypes.

The Global Race for AI Dominance: Globally, nations are investing heavily in AI-driven military systems to achieve strategic dominance. China aims to allocate $150 billion to AI advancements by 2030, while Russia invested $181 million between 2021 and 2023. In the United States, the value of AI-related federal contracts surged from $355 million in August 2022 to $4.6 billion by August 2023. The United Kingdom pledged an additional $155 million for drones and radars to aid Ukraine, and Saudi Arabia unveiled plans for a $40 billion AI investment fund. By comparison India is investing a meagre 50-60 million US dollars in AI for military uses. China by comparison is spending 30 times more.

Drone technology is at the forefront of the revolution in military affairs. The Pentagon predicts that by 2035, 70 per cent of the US Air Force will comprise remotely piloted aircraft. Israel has utilised weaponised drones for surveillance and precision strikes, including in Gaza. China’s Wing Loong and CH-series drones are being exported to nations like Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and Egypt, showcasing their global appeal. Azerbaijan made extensive use of Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 both in 2020 in the Nagarno-Karabakh conflict and then again in 2023 with lethal success.

Even non-state actors such as Hezbollah and Hamas have adopted drone technology, demonstrating its widespread availability and transformative impact on modern warfare. This global race underscores the pivotal role of AI and drones in shaping the future of conflict.

Ethical Dilemmas and International Conventions: The integration of AI into military operations raises pressing ethical questions. Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS), capable of making life-or-death decisions without human intervention, challenge the principles of International Humanitarian Law (IHL). Despite ongoing discussions under the UN Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons since 2014, binding regulations for LAWS remain elusive. In December 2023, the UN General Assembly reaffirmed that IHL applies to these systems, but a comprehensive global framework has yet to materialise.

National approaches to AI ethics in warfare vary significantly. The US department of defence emphasises accountability, equity, and reliability in its AI principles. The European Union advocates for human oversight and ethical safeguards, while India’s Evaluating Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence (ETAI) Framework prioritises transparency and dependability. However, the lack of a unified international standard complicates efforts to ensure ethical deployment of these technologies.

Beyond policy, the inherent risks of autonomous systems are alarming. Machines could misidentify targets, escalate conflicts unpredictably, or be compromised by adversarial data manipulation. The possibility of self-improving AI systems acting beyond human control highlights the urgent need for robust oversight and governance.

Key IHL principles — distinction, proportionality and precautions in attack — require human oversight to ensure compliance. Discussions under the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW) have reiterated the necessity of human accountability in deploying AI-driven weapon systems.

Balancing Innovation and Responsibility in AI Warfare: The transformative power of AI in warfare is accompanied by significant ethical and strategic challenges. While these technologies offer precision and the potential to reduce human casualties, they also carry risks of misuse, conflict escalation, and diminished accountability. The widespread availability of affordable AI-driven tools lowers the entry barriers for smaller nations and non-state actors, posing threats to global stability.

To navigate this new era responsibly, international cooperation is vital. Transparent policies, binding agreements, and robust ethical frameworks can help ensure AI serves as a stabilising force. Global organisations like the UN and international think tanks must lead efforts.

The dual nature of AI demands careful management. Its unprecedented capabilities hold great promise, but unchecked misuse could destabilise global security and undermine the principles of humanity in warfare. The decisions made today will shape the future of conflict, determining whether AI becomes a tool for peace or a driver of destruction.