Shikha Mukerjee | Edgy Mahayuti equations: The new game of thrones
The swearing-in of Devendra Fadnavis as Maharashtra’s new chief minister, almost two weeks after the alliance bagged 80 per cent of the total 288 seats in the Assembly, settles nothing. It is probably the start of a game of thrones that will play out over several years as the three-legged Mahayuti alliance of the BJP-Shiv Sena-Nationalist Congress Party jostle inside and outside the coalition and the government over two vacancies: the dominant face and the dominant party in the state. Maharashtra is consequently hobbling, instead of up and running.
Infuriatingly frustrating as it probably is for the bigger BJP as it treads unsettled waters over portfolio distribution with Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar, the reality is that the party is not in control, nor can it be seen to be in control. The hold-up is a consequence of the much smaller, but obviously not weaker, Eknath Shinde’s reluctance to give up on his ambition to be Maharahstra’s CM again. The BJP has had to patiently get Mr Shinde to agree to his demotion and allow Mr Fadnavis to take charge as chief minister.
To set the record straight, to use a well-worn cliché, the BJP in Maharashtra doesn’t call the shots, despite winning 132 seats and getting the support of five other newly-elected legislators, against 57 that Mr Shinde won, of the total 288 seats. It is a deliciously piquant twist to a particularly sordid saga of contrived defections, break-ups and alliances. The record establishes that unlike in Uttar Pradesh, and more like in Bihar, the BJP must keep its smaller, but not weaker partners, happy.
There are kingmakers and parties that are crucial for cobbling up coalitions. Neither Eknath Shinde nor Ajit Pawar have, as yet, succeeded in becoming the big guys of Maharashtra politics, though they are on course to be so. Their strong showing has made every other party and leader vulnerable unless they blow up their futures or inexplicably fall into a decline. By exceeding the expectations of certainly the BJP and obviously Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar, Mr Shinde and Ajit Pawar are now potential challengers to the line-up of leaders. Curiously enough, so also is Mr Fadnavis to the BJP’s order of things. He has been transformed, like Narendra Modi once was, into the face of the BJP in Maharashtra. This makes him indispensable and different from hitherto all other BJP chief ministers, including men like Shivraj Singh Chouhan, former Madhya Pradesh chief minister, who have served at the pleasure of the party and its masterminds, Narendra Modi and Amit Shah.
When Mr Shinde split the Shiv Sena in 2022 with 40 MLAs, compared to the BJP’s 105 MLAs, and became chief minister, his achievement was at par with Nitish Kumar’s reappointment as chief minister of the NDA government in Bihar in 2017. Both leaders compelled the BJP to play second fiddle, docile and placatory deputy, despite its obsession with being the dominant partner in coalitions.
The lesson that the big guys must stoop low to put themselves in power seems to have been learnt by Ajit Pawar and Mr Shinde. It can mean only one thing; the capacity to delay gratification in order to gain greater and more enduring rewards in the future. By curbing their ambitions for now, Ajit Pawar and Mr Shinde have set themselves on course to play a long game. Whether they play it together or go their separate ways will perhaps determine the BJP’s future in Maharashtra, if the Mahayuti’s present balance of power remains unchanged.
It, however, doesn’t mean that Mr Shinde or Ajit Pawar have permanently curtailed their ambitions.
Ajit Pawar made his position clear by choosing to affirm rather than swear in the name of God his oath of office and secrecy. It is a sign that he has every intention of establishing his identity, his politics and his ideology, separate and distinct from that of the BJP. For Mr Shinde, drawing the line distinguishing his politics and ideology from that of the BJP is complicated, since both profess themselves crusaders of the Hindu cause.
Where does this leave the BJP? It had to negotiate with its allies to confirm its natural position as the Mahayuti’s leader. It must have figured out that the Mahayuti’s stability and its hopes of smooth sailing are contingent on its two partners, Shiv Sena and NCP. This is a new game for the BJP. To play it, it has two choices; it can follow its old playbook or write a new one following the Maharashtra election.
The other uncomfortable truth is the BJP is not the leader of the Maratha heartland and does not embody the spirit of the Marathi manoos (people) or Marathi Asmita. Without the heartland and the spirit, the BJP falls short of the sort of domination it has in Uttar Pradesh and to a lesser degree in Rajasthan and Uttarakhand. It does not have the political capital that is accumulated over decades, through participation and leading grassroots movements in support of the demands of labour, farmers and the infrastructure sector as the Shiv Sena, Congress and Nationalist Congress Party does.
Up against regional grassroots leaders, who have control over the course and direction of their parties, the BJP is at a huge disadvantage. The BJP, even in the cause of Hindutva, is dependent on the RSS and its network of voluntary outfits for mass mobilisation. As a centrally-controlled institution where hierarchy and protocols prevail, the BJP needs to constantly juggle regional politics versus national goals and agendas. Contrary to the party’s narrative that regional leaders are puppets and foot soldiers who are entirely dispensable because what matters is the unprecedented popularity and durability of the great helmsman, that is Narendra Modi, the Maharashtra story has produced a new leader, who is indispensable for the success of the Mahayuti.
This is a new reality and the BJP will have to figure out how to handle it. The more history and the more varied that history becomes as the BJP matures as a national party, its simple design of leadership, collective or singular, more or less authoritarian or democratic, will necessarily have to accommodate the emergence of local leaders, some of whom could be like Narendra Modi, superstars on their own turf and on the national scene. As a national party, and one with a future, the BJP has to find ways of grooming the second and third generation of leaders, which it can start doing from Maharashtra, because unlike the Congress, there is no dynasty that will produce successors as a matter of duty.
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