Wasbir Hussain | Manipur: Local ethnic ‘war’ turns into a national crisis

The use of drones and the long-range projectile that was fired from a distance of at least 7 km is what made the state and Central security establishment sit up and take a deeper look at the prevailing situation. The use of these weapons meant that the attackers, whichever side they belonged to, could strike at will from their safe locations and create havoc if they wanted to. Besides, it has also raised questions as to the source of these weapons because Manipur shares a 398-km-long porous border with strife-torn Myanmar. This is a serious cause for worry because civil war-torn Myanmar has any number of militias active along the border with the northeastern Indian states and having in their possession sophisticated weapons and military hardware even for sale to

raise funds.

Already, Manipur has turned out to be one of the most militarised states in the country. Within months of the ethnic violence starting on May 3, 2023, agitated mobs, mainly in the Imphal Valley, looted weapons belonging mostly to state security forces. Estimates say around 5,000 automatic and semi-automatic weapons and 500,000 rounds of ammunition have been looted from armouries and other facilities belonging to the Manipur police. So, a group of people in the Imphal Valley suddenly had a lot of arms and ammunition in their hands, and, this during a blistering ethnic clash added to the security challenge in the state. On top of this, the Valley-based Meitei insurgents who had bases across the border in Myanmar appeared to have returned home in the wake of the war in Myanmar between the military junta and the pro-democracy militias.

In the hills, the spotlight, right from the start of the ethnic upsurge, has been on the 2,000-plus Kuki rebel cadres (officially listed) under the banner of the Kuki National Organisation (KNO) and the United Democratic Front (UDF), who has been on a Suspension of Operations (SoO) agreement with the Centre and the state government since 2008. These Kuki rebels have been accused by groups in the Imphal Valley of leading the attacks of the Meiteis, along with others, a charge these SoO groups have denied. Manipur chief minister N. Biren Singh and his government wants the SoO agreement abrogated. The SoO agreement, basically a ceasefire deal, expired in February last and has not been officially renewed, although the rebels are supposed to be still staying at the 14 designated camps. The leaders of these groups under truce say that their weapons are under double lock and key, with one set of keys with the state authorities. But, despite such claims, the SoO groups have continued to be accused by leaders and organisations in the Imphal Valley of being involved in attacks on Meiteis.

During the past few days, from Friday to Sunday, chief minister Biren Singh chaired two Cabinet meetings and met governor Laxman Prasad Acharya twice, alone on Saturday and along with several ministers and MLAs of the ruling alliance on Sunday. The chief minister clearly told the Centre, through the governor, to vest full powers on the state government to deal with the situation and give the charge of the Unified Command of security forces to the state. The fact that the chief minister has even made such a demand (law and order is in any case a state subject) is because Article 355 is supposed to be in force in Manipur for more than a year now. What is Article 355? This provision states that It shall be the duty of the Union to protect every state against external

aggression and internal disturbance.

By asking the Centre to be more proactive (not in so many words though) and seeking the charge of the Unified Command, the state leadership in Manipur seeks to send out a message that it does not have the full authority or final say as of now in handling matters on the ground. Besides, chief minister Biren Singh once again reiterated the demand for abrogation of the SoO agreement with the Kuki rebel groups, fencing of the border with Myanmar and stricter implementation of the ban on the Free Movement Regime (FMR) with Myanmar. The FMR, that allowed people of both India and Myanmar to go up to a distance of 16 km into the territory of the other country, has been discontinued after the ethnic violence.

This indicates the fear or suspicion of the Biren Singh government that elements from Myanmar could be aiding the Kukis in the ongoing battle as the border regions of Myanmar is inhabited by people belonging to the same Kuki-Chin group. “I am not against the original Kukis. Our threat is from the Kuki immigrants who have been coming in from Myanmar,” Mr Biren Singh has said.

Drawn into the vortex of the conflict is a section of the Central security forces, particularly the paramilitary Assam Rifles, the nation’s oldest paramilitary force that traces its origin to 1835. The Meitei groups and leaders accuse the Assam Rifles of been supportive towards the Kukis and therefore not playing a neutral role. The Assam Rifles, however, denies this accusation. Nonetheless, there is a move to withdraw at least two battalions of the Assam Rifles from the hill areas, something the Kukis are upset about and are opposing, saying the Assam Rifles is required to stay for their safety against the “onslaught from the Valley”.

If there is no end to the violence in sight, there is also no solid attempt at brokering peace between the two sides. The tragedy in Manipur, therefore, is likely to continue and become a long-drawn battle.