Obfuscation won't solve jobs problem

The resignation of two non-governmental experts of the National Statistical Commission, including its acting chief, in protest against the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) withholding or delaying the release of its jobs data report points to blatant political intervention in the work of autonomous bodies that do crucial data-gathering tasks. There could have been no starker condemnation of the government’s attitude than the decision of these two to quit due to the inordinate delay in releasing the latest statistics. This clearly points to the Centre’s reluctance to release such data as it may be inimical to the ruling party’s electoral prospects. Leaked data from the Periodic Labour Force Survey 2017-18 suggests a major crisis over unemployment, much of which can be traced back to the disruptive force of the November 2016 demonetisation exercise.

Intervention amounting to vetting of data had led to problems in the release last year of back-series data on GDP growth too. The unemployment statistics are even more vital — as joblessness has become a major issue, particularly among the country’s youth just graduating to the age of employment and looking to their future. The stalled report is said to have revealed that unemployment — at 6.1 per cent in 2017-18 — has been at its highest in the past 45 years, according to NSSO figures. The comparative figures for 2012 are 2.2 per cent. The youth unemployment rate, which is probably more relevant to today’s troubled times, is now at “astronomically high levels” of between 13 to 27 per cent. This being the first post-demonetisation data report, it reflects more accurately that problems have exacerbated in the wake of the unpopular, abrupt measure that sucked out about 87 per cent of the high-denomination currency in circulation.

There is something sacrosanct about gathering data, which loses credibility if there is government intervention. Data helps not only governance but also private enterprise in a country with a burgeoning population. The figures show that the 7.8 per cent urban unemployment is higher than the 5.3 per cent rural joblessness. What must be contributing to this is the migration to urban areas in search of livelihood due to the agricultural distress the country has been in the grip of due to falling commodity prices. An ostrich-in-the-sand act is obviously not going to help in the face of what is a huge national challenge of finding jobs for hundreds of millions, even as millions more youth join the workforce every year. The challenge can’t be faced either by pretending it doesn’t exist or by fudging the data to colour the process owing to political motivation. The nation’s two biggest problems — rural distress and youth unemployment — aren’t going to be solved by running away from them or obfuscating the true picture.