Oppn unity: Work in progress
Mayawati's BSP has a crucial role in UP, whose electoral dynamics also tends to have a spillover effect.
From the meeting of the Opposition parties called by the Congress on Friday, it is evident that their unity remains a work in progress. It’s also evident — based on how far the process has got in the past month or so since it was initiated — that the participants are watching the state of play in relation to their own respective state politics as all are state-level parties, barring the Congress. The Communists too are now essentially confined to Kerala, where their electoral clash is with the Congress.
On Friday, the NCP stayed away, miffed that the Congress suspected it of not voting in favour of Ahmed Patel in the high-voltage dramatic Gujarat Rajya Sabha vote last week. But the NCP protests too much. The chances are it didn’t want to fall foul of the BJP, given the allegations of high-level corruption against its ministers in Maharashtra and at the Centre when it was in government, which the BJP may try to exploit. Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) has already jumped ship and moved to the NDA.
From the perspective of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the key states will be Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra in electoral arithmetic and prospects of anti-BJP parties cooperating. If the index of Opposition unity is high, there will be a fight against the ruling party. Mayawati’s BSP has a crucial role in UP, whose electoral dynamics also tends to have a spillover effect. However, while aiming for Opposition unity, the Congress must be much better prepared in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat.