BJP ahead in coalition game

With the first phase of polling for the upcoming Lok Sabha election less than a month away, there is bound to be considerable public interest in knowing the line-up.

So much talk in the recent past has been about the emergence of two coalitions — the incumbent BJP-led NDA and the group comprising its opponents whose largest entity is the Congress, which is still very much a nationwide political formation although its strength has diminished in crucial states.

The BJP has already finalised its tie-ups with its basic allies. Roping in the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, with which it has not been on the best of terms for most of the last five years, was far from easy but it did eventually materialise. The chemistry between the two is, of course, is not quite clear.

Finalising deals with the JD(U) in Bihar and the Akali Dal in Punjab was a lot easier. In some cases, the saffron party stooped to conquer. At last it could also reach an understanding with the AGP in Assam, but this has left the AGP divided. So, the result of this alliance remains unclear.

On the secular side, coalition-making is still in the works. This is principally because the Congress is dealing with parties that are streets ahead of it in crucial states such as West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, and possibly even Delhi.

It has finalised deals with the DMK in Tamil Nadu and the JD(S) in Karnataka. But behind-the-scenes talks are still thought to be on with the AAP in Delhi and the SP-BSP formation in UP. Mayawati declared recently that she wouldn't go with the Congress in any state. But politics is more probability than rigid geometry.