A critical political point in Jammu & Kashmir

Nearly two and a half months have gone by since the imposition of Governor’s Rule in Jammu and Kashmir on January 8 following the demise of chief minister Mufti Muhammad Sayeed, and there appear no immediate signs of an elected government being formed from among the present legislators. The ruling coalition partners — the Kashmiri regional party PDP and the BJP — might in normal circumstances have been expected to elect a new leader of government and carry on. Mufti Sayeed’s daughter, Mehbooba, who is a MP and holds the organisational reins of her party, was deemed a natural successor to her father, and BJP had no objections. But Ms Mufti has so far declined to step up to the plate.

She has cited a clutch of conditions centring on a promised development agenda that has failed to materialise on account of the Centre not showing alacrity. These are important from PDP’s perspective, whose association with the BJP, regarded a Hindutva-oriented right-wing party, is justifiable if the Centre pumps money into Kashmir, as promised (before the PDP-BJP coalition was struck), under various heads and boosts development projects.

Right through the year-long association of the PDP and the BJP in government when Mufti Sayeed was alive, the BJP, whose strengths lie in the predominantly Hindu region of the state, appeared to focus on issues that sharpened the Hindu-Muslim cleavage, and this was making PDP uncomfortable with the cohabitation. PDP MLAs may perhaps like to return to sharing the governmental space with BJP but they need to have something concrete to show to their constituency in the Valley. BJP general secretary Ram Madhav, the party’s point-man for Kashmir, informed the media on Friday after a meeting between Ms Mufti and BJP president Amit Shah, that no meeting ground had been reached.

BJP is refusing to give in to any of PDP’s demands relating to the development agenda, saying any demand can be made by the state government of the Centre once the government is formed but no prior conditions can be put prior to that. This suggests that it is now the BJP’s turn to up the ante, keeping its Jammu constituency in mind. The PDP’s reaction would be watched with interest. If the party goes back to the coalition arrangement without any important demand being met, it will have little to show to the Kashmir voter. This is obviously a critical political point. If elections are held in the coming months, PDP might go back to the people with some face, having taken the Centre on. If it returns to government with the BJP, and has a political struggle ahead at every step — as has so far been the case — then it may cede the electoral space in Kashmir to rivals.