DC Edit | Reality of $4-trillion economy

On Sunday, when the Indian cricket team was playing the ICC World Cup Final against Australia on November 19, the entire nation, especially those leaning towards the BJP, went gaga over an image of a desktop, purportedly tracking global economies. Why?

Because the image showed the size of India’s economy to be $4 trillion, which if true, would have been a significant milestone for the country’s economic development. Several Union ministers, chief ministers, top business leaders and analysts welcomed the news without verifying the veracity of the news or waiting for the official confirmation. A day later, some serious analysis revealed that India is not yet a $4 trillion economy.  

According to advance estimates given in the Economic Survey, the size of India’s GDP on March 31, 2023 was worth Rs 2,73,07,751 crore or Rs 273.07 trillion, which as per the exchange rate on March 31, 2023, was worth $3.32 trillion. If India has to become a $4-trillion economy, its GDP should be worth Rs 333.6 trillion at the current exchange rate of Rs 83.40 per US dollar.

According to Reserve Bank of India’s projections, India’s GDP would grow by 6.5 per cent in the current financial year. It means the country’s GDP would grow 6.5 per cent by adding Rs 17.75 trillion by March 31, 2024.

At this rate, India’s GDP on March 31, 2024 would be Rs 290.82 trillion or $3.4 trillion economy at the November 21 exchange rate of Rs 83.40 per US dollar. It shows India still has a long way — a few years more — to travel to become a $4-trillion economy as the government kept the rupee, according to some experts, undervalued to boost exports.

Just like how the ICC World Cup final’s result had disappointed them, the hard facts of the economy, which cannot be changed for anyone, seem to have burst their euphoria a day later.

Nevertheless, one should lose heart because India’s economy has achieved inertia which transforms it to be the world’s third largest economy at least by the time India celebrates its 100th Independence Day.