Polls 2016: A clear road to Assam

Though the victory march of the Bharatiya Janata Party that began in 2014 was brought to a halt in 2015 with major setbacks in the Delhi and Bihar Assembly elections, there seems to be a reversal of that trend for the party in Assam. In the politically most significant Northeast state, the contest is going to be mainly between the two national parties, a strong BJP versus a weak Congress, with the regional political players in the state — the All-India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF, now in alliance with the BJP) — playing marginal roles.

The BJP has had a successful start. It has taken over the political space vacated by the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), once the state’s ruling party, and with its alliance with the BPF there is a strong possibility of it winning the forthcoming Assembly elections.

During the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won seven of the 14 Lok Sabha seats with 36 per cent votes, the Congress won three seats with 29.5 per cent votes, AIUDF won three seats with 14.8 per cent votes, while the Kokrajhar seat was won by an Independent candidate.

The AGP was completely marginalised, polling 3.7 per cent votes, only marginally higher than the 2.1 per cent votes of the BPF. Simple electoral arithmetic suggests that if the BJP manages to repeat its 2014 performance, it can win 70 of the 126 Assembly seats, well beyond the number required for forming the government.

There is hardly any indication of the state’s political scenario having changed significantly in any way since 2014, and the BJP still remains much more popular than other political parties.

That said, there has been some decline in the BJP’s popularity on account of the Narendra Modi government’s failure to act on its poll promises. For instance, the Land Boundary Agreement with Bangladesh, which saw several acres of land in Assam being given to Bangladesh, went against Mr Modi’s election promise of not giving an inch of Assam’s land to Bangladesh.

Moreover, the government’s decision to grant citizenship to Hindu Bangladeshis residing in Assam and elsewhere in India is seen as the BJP’s attempt to shelter illegal Bangladeshi immigrants. But does this dissatisfaction with the Central government mean that the BJP may not be in a position to perform well in the forthcoming elections? Highly unlikely, even though it may result in some drop in the party’s vote share as has been witnessed in other recent elections.

The announcement of Sarbananda Sonowal as the party’s chief ministerial candidate well in advance means that the BJP has learnt from the mistakes it made in Bihar and Delhi. Moreover, the BJP can hope to make up for its slight decline in popularity by its alliance with the BPF, which will help it consolidate the adivasi votes in the state.

The BJP, in fact, has already played its card to woo the adivasi voters by supporting the proposal to include communities like Motok, Moran, Tai Ahom, Koch Rajbonshi, Sootea and Tea Tribes into the Schedule Tribe category, which at the moment are classified as Other Backward Classes.

The BJP also has the advantage of contesting against a divided Opposition with most parties busy tackling their own difficulties. The Congress is facing a 15-year anti-incumbency. Its vote share declined by nearly 10 percentage points between the 2011 Assembly and 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Its support base has been eroded significantly.

The strong 34 per cent Muslim voters spread across the three regions of the state but concentrated mainly in the Barak Valley (37 per cent) and Lower Assam bordering Bangladesh (46 per cent) have moved significantly towards the AIUDF. It is mainly due to the division of the Muslim vote between the Congress and the AIUDF that the former performed badly in this region, polling only 23 per cent votes. Post-poll study by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) suggests that 40 per cent of Muslims voted for the Congress and 39 for AIUDF.

The young urban voters, who once voted for the AGP in large numbers, also moved towards the BJP in a big way in 2014 — 35 per cent voted for the BJP, while only 29 per cent voted for the Congress. Among urban voters, 45 per cent voted for the BJP while 18 per cent voted for the Congress.

What is bound to add to the Congress’ woes is the recent defection of a large number of sitting MLAs — all have joined the BJP. The negative image of the Congress at the national level makes it difficult to attract new, popular politicians.

If the non-BJP parties decide to contest the election separately without any alliance, it is likely to pave the way for a BJP government in the state. Even if the BJP’s vote share declines by a few points from what it was in 2014, it may still be comfortably placed to win due to a divided Opposition.

In fact, the BJP has managed to win three (Maharashtra, Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir) Assembly elections post 2014 Lok Sabha mainly due to the division of the non-BJP votes. United Opposition, like it was in Bihar, has been able to block the BJP’s march to victory. Hence, the only roadblock for the BJP in Assam could be a Bihar-like alliance between the Congress and the AIUDF, which may consolidate the Muslim vote.

If that happens, the BJP will try counter mobilisation by raising the issue of illegal Bangladesh migrants (mainly Muslims) more aggressively. This but may not be enough to counter the consolidation of the Muslim votes. Which party manages to form the government may only be known once the votes are counted, but one thing is clear — the BJP’s knock at the doors of the Assam Assembly is loud and clear.