By invitation: The by-poll disorder'- It's party over candidate

The last few weeks have made many observers of government and politics in Karnataka believe that everyone who is politically relevant and everything that is politically significant is linked to Nanjangudu and Gundlupet! The State Assembly by-elections has become such an obsession for the government, ruling party and the principal opposition that all other governmental/political activity seems to have come to a virtual standstill.

During the last few days, the Chief Minister and leading State ministers have made the two constituencies their base.  The State BJP President who is a Member of Parliament has preferred not to attend the Lok Sabha session but be grounded in Chamarajnagar district overseeing the party campaign in the two constituencies going to the polls.

What makes these by-elections where voters in two constituencies choose their representative for the State Assembly today, become so critical for the politics of the state? Why has anybody who is somebody in Congress and BJP in Karnataka, shifted base to Nanjangudu and Gundlupet?  Why are these by-elections so critical and why are political parties and leaders investing so much time and energy in these campaigns? Its simple. This is veritably the semi-final elections before the finals – the Assembly polls of 2018 and all semi-finals set the tone, pace and tenor of a grand finale.

  It may be useful to set the context by outlining what has caused the by polls. In Nanjangud, the sitting MLA Srinivasa Prasad,  who was a Minister in the Siddaramaiah government, resigned his seat on quitting the Congress party on being dropped from the Ministry. He, now, is the BJP candidate seeking the approval of his voters for his actions of switching political parties. Interestingly, the Congress candidate is the one who had contested against Srinivas Prasad in the 2013 polls as the JD(S) candidate! So the key contestants in Nanjangud are the same as in the 2013 polls, though they now don different party symbols! The question would then be, are the voters today deciding on which party they prefer or which candidate they favour?

  In Gundlupet, the death of a senior Congress Minister has caused the by-poll and the party has fielded the wife of the deceased MLA. The BJP on the other hand has fielded the candidate who lost the 2013 Assembly elections. In that sense, nothing significant has changed in terms of the nature of the electoral contest in both Nanjangud and Gundlupet. However, if one were to look at the context of the electoral competition, there is a significant difference between 2013 and 2017 and this merits elaboration.

 The Congress government has completed four years of its term and would be commencing its final twelve months very soon. Any defeat in the by-elections would be a huge loss of face for the ruling party as these were both seats that had ruling party legislators. A defeat in even one of the seats, would place them on the back-foot. Over the last four years in power, one has been witness to frequent display of disunity in the party and leaders speaking in multiple voices. Rather than broadening its social base of support, many have argued that the way the government has run in the last four years is indicative of its catering to a limited social constituency, alienating powerful social groups and interests. The Congress as a party has been pushed to the backburner with those in government being more keen on the exercise of power rather than on strengthening the party and its support base. Its by-election performance would be an indicator of whether the party and government have worked in sync or are pulling in opposite directions. The two by-elections have seen a rare unity demonstrated in the party with all factions, and leaders coming together in their collective interest to ensure victory.

  After its victory in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, the BJP sees itself to be on the upswing and hopes that the by-elections results would further boost its electoral prospects in the next Assembly polls due next year. For BJP State President, B S Yeddyurappa, the by-elections has become a prestige battle and in a sense, a test of his leadership skills. The first major electoral competition he has faced after taking over the state party leadership, he hopes that the by-election results would strengthen his position in the party at the state level and indicate to the central leadership of the party that they took the right decision in entrusting him with the leadership at the state level. Given the strong undercurrents of dissent in the state unit of the party, a good performance by the BJP in the by-polls under the leadership of Yeddyurappa would, he believes give him an edge in the leadership sweepstakes.

 The decision of the voters in Nanjangud and Gundlupet are likely to have far reaching ramifications across the state and have important implications for the two national parties. The Chief Minister and the BJP President have much at stake in these by-elections as it is a referendum on their leadership.  With this round of by-elections the countdown to the state assembly elections has clearly begun.