AIADMK churn: BJP, Congress smiling...

Sasikala, always the bridesmaid, never the bride! As the final denouement approaches for the woman who latched on to the coat-tails of her meal ticket, the supremely successful actress turned politician Jayalalitha Jayaram, who has been indicted in the disproportionate assets case 21 years after the case was first filed, it’s not arch-rival DMK but the BJP – and the Congress- which must be smiling.

The AIADMK behemoth that Jayalalitha built which crushed the DMK, whose goons had once stripped her and hounded her out of the assembly, saw her historic re-election only months ago. But if Sasikala, Jaya’s long time aide and partner believed that she could sail into Fort St. George and take over Amma’s cape, wealth and political legacy, she was mistaken.

The BJP has lost no opportunity to say that they have no stakes in the state, as they have no MLA, in the assembly and that they would do nothing to destabilize Tamil Nadu. Except, the Governor, for all the claims that he was playing it by the book and did not want to be another Fatima Beevi, played a clever waiting game.

Sasikala said she had the numbers, and demanded a floor test. No, that wouldn’t be feasible. What if the court judgement went against her? He could be complicit in swearing in a chief minister for a day? Better to wait till the party split right down the middle and for the Governor to then step in and say that with neither Sasikala and her new proxy Edappadi Palaniswamy or the pretender O Panneerselvan able to muster up the numbers, Governor’s Rule and fresh elections would be the only option.

So much for not fishing in troubled waters!
Which brings us to the case itself. The Congress can cry itself hoarse that it, too, would not meddle. But what was it that prompted the Congress government in Karnataka to nudge the Supreme Court on a case that had been heard months before and didn’t look likely to be heard again anytime soon? The Congress – hell, everyone – knew that an adverse judgement would scupper Sasikala’s chief ministerial ambitions.

And leave the AIADMK open to a vertical split
The non-Dravidian parties have had little or no presence in the state for over two decades. The Congress, in its current avatar has no base. The Congress’ relationship with Amma after the tea-party with Party chairperson Sonia Gandhi went awry has been uneasy, particularly after Amma and Prime Minister Narendra Modi grew even closer as allies ranged against the Congress.

What did the Congress hope to achieve with the indictment? A split, with one faction of AIADMK, probably being mopped up by the Congress ally, the DMK. As did the BJP? In today’s Tamil Nadu, anything’s possible especially when there’s no ideological divide.