360 Degrees: As Yadavs wrestle on, their rivals smell blood

The ageing wrestler is in no mood to abandon his turf. Waiting on the sidelines, his son wants the turf for himself. This former wrestler, once called “ dharti putra”, Mulayam Singh Yadav is refusing to let go and hand over power to his son and Uttar Pradesh chief minister Akhilesh Yadav.

With the ruling family of Uttar Pradesh, the Yadavs, engaged in their own Mahabharat, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati, riding on her elephant, smells an opportunity to return to power. Led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his general and BJP president Amit Shah, the “safrronites” are also closing in.

Stepping out of the ICU (intensive care unit), a struggling Congress is tinkering with the concept of a “Mahagathbandhan”, or Grand Alliance. The floundering party is holding talks with the Janata Dal (United) and the Rashtriya Lok Dal for an alliance. It is also nudging the Samajwadi Party for a response.

The crisis in the SP could be a game-changer not only in UP but in future permutations and combinations in national politics.

Read: Will self-goal decide the UP match-winner?

In Mahabharata, the character Shakuni was the mastermind behind Kurukshetra, the epic war fought between relatives for dynastic succession. In SP, Amar Singh, being described as the “Shakuni Mama” stand accused (by the Akhilesh camp) of rolling the dice to split the Yadav clan.

Mr Akhilesh wants Mr Amar out. His father, Mr Mulayam, and uncle and state unit chief Shivpal Yadav, believe Mr Amar is still the man who holds the key to an influential communication channel in New Delhi, be it of BJP or the Opposition.

Clawing back to his position, after being expelled from SP, Mr Amar, whom the Akhilesh camp has also branded as “dalal”, played the victim card and offered himself for the slaughter. “I present myself to be slaughtered. If slaughtering me resolves the crisis, I’m ready to be slaughtered,” Mr Amar said.

As the Yadav clan moves from one crisis to another, political observers are keenly watching the developments. A senior BJP leader felt that this ongoing family war might “improve our chances”, but BSP “could be the main beneficiary.” The arithmetic is simple.

The majority of  over 20 per cent Muslim were with SP. If the Muslims, who seemed to be “confused” following the SP infighting, shift to BSP, and if Ms Mayawati regains her major chunk of 21 per cent of the dalit vote bank (which had shifted to BJP during the 2014 general elections) the elephant could easily tiptoe home.

Her main rival at the moment is BJP, which is desperately trying to woo dalits by holding a series of conclaves. Mr Modi and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) are busy eulogizing them and their icon B.R. Ambedkar. Besides dalits, Ms Mayawati is also trying to attract the upper caste vote bank.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, Ms Mayawati was completely decimated as her vote share plunged from 30.43 per cent to 19.62 per cent. She and all other outfits in UP were wiped out by the BJP’s promise of “achchhe din”. Aware that the promise of “achche din” is yet to be fulfilled, the BJP is now relying heavily on nationalism and polarization — the party’s tried and tested card.

Read: Caste in stone? New alignments on the cards

For the BJP, which was trounced in crucial polls in Delhi and Bihar, it desperately needs a victory in UP. If BJP fails to score, it could just be the start of “bure din” for the party. The UP results could change national politics. A BJP win will see the Opposition in complete disarray and Mr Amit Shah can comfortably prepare for the 2019 general elections.

In the eye of the storm.

Trying to do a Bihar in UP, Congress has floated the idea of a “Mahagathbandhan”. The party is holding parleys with JD(U), RLD and also the SP state unit chief Mr Shivpal, who indicated that he has Mr Mulayam’s green signal to join forces with Congress and other like-minded outfits, which include RLD.

The situation is fluid, since talks are merely on. But if this proposed joining of Opposition forces do take place and the results justify the Grand Alliance, it could be a major signal for the 2019 general elections.

But for now, Ms Mayawati intends to give a large number of tickets to Muslims and upper castes. Thanks to the saffron backed “gau rakshaks” repeated targeting of dalits across the country, the community is backing Ms Mayawati.

The dalit “queen” seems to be ahead of the BJP with her Muslim-dalit combination. BJP, which is also targeting the dalit vote bank, is focusing on the other backward classes (OBC) and the upper caste communities.

The BJP’s second main target is Mr Mulayam’s vote bank. The OBCs including the sub-castes comprise nearly 45 per cent of UP’s population. Mr Amit Shah has been addressing OBC-dalit conventions. The party is aware that despite a strong presence of upper castes, with over 13 per cent Brahmins and 8 per cent Thakurs, the party will need the support of OBCs and dalits to romp home.

Despite a top heavy upper caste leadership in UP, the BJP recently tried to consolidate the vote bank by inducting Congress rebel Rita Bahuguna Joshi. In Jat-dominated western UP, BJP is all set to the play the nationalist card.

For now, the Congress and the Samajwadis are running shoulder-to-shoulder. If the Yadav family feud continues, the race between Congress and SP will be for the third and fourth slot. The SP’s vote bank is in complete disarray and the Congress is looking for a vote bank by projecting upper caste chief ministerial candidate Sheila Dikshit. It also tried to send signals to Muslims by making Raj Babbar the state unit chief.

With defeat staring at its face in the Punjab Assembly polls, Mr Amit Shah and his team is working round-the-clock for a victory in UP. In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls it won 71 of the 80 parliamentary seats. In the recent civic polls, BJP came behind SP and BSP. Infighting among the top state leaders has forced the BJP to drop the idea of going to the polls with a chief ministerial candidate. The party is depending heavily on Mr Modi and his “charisma” to do the magic yet again. Despite winning in Assam, the BJP needs an electoral victory in a politically important state.

The pendulum is swinging from elephant to lotus. One opinion poll predicted that of the 403 Assembly seats, BJP could bag between 170 and 183 seats. Another poll predicted a Ms Mayawati sweep. Some predicted a hung Assembly. The Shah-Modi axis is trying to blend surgical strikes, nationalism and development to win UP, while BSP is working on a caste equation.

The game is on, but as the RSS mouthpiece Organiser wrote: “Winning UP is a must for BJP”.