Karnataka: Congress sweeps bypolls securing victory in all 3 constituencies

Mangaluru: The Congress party in Karnataka has achieved a significant political triumph by sweeping the recent by-elections. The party has secured victories in all three constituencies—Sandur, Shiggaon, and Channapatna.

Chief Minister Siddaramaiah's call to strengthen his hand through victory in the three seats received good support, translating into a resounding mandate that not only strengthened his leadership but also dealt a blow to the opposition BJP-JD(S) alliance.

While the people of Shiggaon and Channapatna did not support the children of former Chief Ministers (Bharat Bommai in Singgaon and Nikhil Kumaraswamy in Channapatna), Bangaru Hanumatha of BJP failed to win the Sandur seat.

Voters preferred to support their former MLA CP Yogeshwar in Channapatna. In Sandur they stood with Annapoorna, wife of former MLA E Tukaram and in Shiggaon voters backed Yasir Ahmed Khan Pathan, who had lost to Basavaraj Bommai in the 2023 elections.

A United Front Amidst Divided Opposition

The by-election results reflect a strong effort by the Congress, backed by Siddaramaiah's AHINDA (minorities, backward classes, and Dalits) base, coupled with strategic moves by Deputy Chief Minister and KPCC President DK Shivakumar.

The leaders ensured that there were no rebellion within the party in any of these constituencies. When there was a rebellion in Haveri, Minister Zameer Ahmed Khan took personal care and ensured a solution.

At Sandur where there were rumors of anti-incumbency, Minister Santosh Lad camped for several days and guaranteed that the voters supported the Congress party.

Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and DCM and KPCC president DK Shivakumar took personal care and made repeated visits to these constituencies. They held strategic meetings and met key persons in these places.

In contrast, the BJP's internal divisions and lack of a coordinated strategy weakened its position. Despite raising issues like the MUDA scam, misappropriation in the Valmiki Development Corporation, the Waqf controversy, and alleged appeasement politics, the BJP failed to capitalize on these narratives effectively.

The Congress retained its stronghold in Sandur while also grabbing the BJP-dominated Shiggaon and JD(S)-controlled Channapatna. This consolidation of power highlights Siddaramaiah’s continuing grip on both the party and the voters, thereby strengthening his image as the Congress party’s strongest leader in Karnataka.

The Siddaramaiah Factor

Congress leaders attribute their victory to Siddaramaiah's governance and his ability to rally support from traditional Congress voters and marginalized communities. AHINDA’s determined loyalty to Siddaramaiah and fears that a Congress defeat might destabilize Siddaramaiah's leadership played a crucial role in uniting the party.

“The AHINDA groups, especially the Kuruba community and Muslims stood firmly with Siddaramaiah, fearing that a loss might force his resignation, creating turmoil in the party. This was one of the major factors for the Congress,” a senior BJP leader admitted.

Siddaramaiah’s leadership has been important for Congress. In the 2023 Assembly elections, the party secured 135 seats. The by-election results have only reinforced his indispensability within the party. “Any instability around Siddaramaiah could create confusion over leadership and weaken the party,” a Congress leader pointed out.

BJP’s Setbacks and Missed Opportunities

For the BJP, the by-election results are a significant setback. Despite raising serious allegations against Congress, the party failed to connect with voters on these issues. Internal divisions within the BJP further hampered its ability to present a cohesive narrative.

While Basangouda Patil Yatnal aggressively raised the Waqf issue in Vijayapura, other factions within the BJP remained silent or disinterested. Similarly, when state BJP president BY Vijayendra addressed the same topic the other group was quiet.

Even BJP insiders acknowledged that the strongest criticism of Congress came not from their party but from JD(S) leader HD Kumaraswamy.

Even the BJP's allegations against Congress, such as the MUDA scam and Valmiki Corporation irregularities, failed to resonate with voters. “While they were major issues, we could not convert them into votes,” a BJP office-bearer admitted. The party's attack on Congress party's guarantee schemes also fell flat, as many voters, particularly women, expressed satisfaction with the government’s welfare initiatives.

Adding to its woes, fielding former CM Basavaraj Bommai’s son in Shiggaon and HD Kumaraswamy's son Nikhil in Chanapatna—was seen as an embrace of family politics which estranged traditional supporters. “Our base has always opposed family politics, and this move did not sit well with many of our loyal voters,” a senior BJP leader admitted.

Guarantee Schemes and Welfare Politics

The Congress’s guarantee schemes played a decisive role in the elections. Welfare measures, especially those targeting women and marginalized communities, helped consolidate voter trust in the government. While the BJP attempted to criticize the schemes as poorly implemented, the Congress’s ground-level outreach and messaging ensured that voters remained loyal.

A Blow to BJP, a Boost for Congress

The by-election results have dealt a significant blow to the BJP, which was already struggling to regroup after its defeat in the 2023 Assembly elections. The Congress’s victory, particularly in BJP and JD(S) bastions, highlights its growing dominance in Karnataka’s political landscape.

However, the BJP’s inability to leverage key issues and its internal rifts raise questions about its preparedness for future elections. As Congress consolidates its position, the BJP needs to address its organizational challenges and reconnect with its base to mount an effective opposition.

For Siddaramaiah, the results mark another feather in his cap, solidifying his stature as a leader capable of navigating Congress through Karnataka’s complex political terrain.

The victory not only strengthens his leadership but also sends a clear message to his detractors—both within and outside the party.