Will Erode East Turn Out to Be Vijay’s Dindigul?

Chennai: With the State Assembly declaring the vacancy of its Erode East seat following the passing away of veteran Congress leader E V K S Elangovan on December 14, all eyes are now on the constituency with some wondering if it would do to Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) founder Vijay what the Dindigul Lok Sabha seat did to AIADMK founder M G Ramachandran (MGR) more than half a century ago, in 1973.

It was in 1973 through the by-election to the Dindigul Lok Sabha constituency that the then-nascent AIADMK tasted its maiden electoral triumph when Maya Thevar won the seat as a candidate of a six-month-old party that did not have its election symbol. Legend has it that Maya Thevar, in consultation with MGR, picked the ‘two leaves’ symbol and the party garnered countless victories by contesting on that symbol subsequently.

Since the VCK is just a couple of months old and has not even formalized its party structure completely, opinion seems to be divided on contesting from Erode East, for which the polling might happen sometime in February 2025, giving the winner a short-term of over a year.

However, in the present context, the technically nonconsequential election will be crucial for the other political parties as it would be a test of their popularity in the run-up to the 2026 Assembly polls for which all of them, including the TVK, are gearing up.

For the ruling coalition, led by the DMK, it would be a prestige issue since the earlier by-election in March 2023 returned the Congress nominee Elangovan who was contesting in the seat that fell vacant due to the death of his son, Thirumagan Evera.

Even in that election, both the BJP and AIADMK wanted to wrest it from the ruling coalition. Since the AIADMK was then in an alliance with the BJP, it had to assert its right to re-contest in the seat that was allotted to it in the 2021 general election. The BJP tried its level best to convince the AIADMK to give the seat to them in vain.

So, now there is a possibility of the AIADMK and BJP fielding candidates, apart from the TVK. But it is learnt that the Congress is caught in a dilemma on nominating its candidate for two reasons. One, the situation was precarious and the candidate’s defeat could lead to loss of face for both the Congress and DMK and two, finding a candidate is rather difficult for the term is terribly truncated.

The DMK might pitch in to field its candidate but ensuring victory could be a Himalayan task. For, in 2023 itself the DMK campaigners struggled a lot and even faced the allegations of detaining voters in makeshift camps during the day time to prevent rival campaigners from seeking their votes. Such a campaign-style could be expensive and could not be repeated, too.

Now, the DMK has to win the seat for it is a prestige issue but could not be complacent about it. The fight, it is speculated, could turn tough and dicey if the TVK enters the fray to test the electoral waters and the rest of the parties back it by leaving the fray. Though sources said that Vijay might not wish to field his candidate now as his party is not prepared to face an electoral battle, there could be pressure on him to try his luck as MGR did in 1973 in Dindigul.