The risk of predicting the unpredictable T20

Predicting form of players and teams, trends of play and outcome of matches in T20 cricket can be fun, but fraught with the danger of finding foot in mouth.

Friday night for instance, I had a friendly wager that Mumbai Indians would roll over Kings Xl Punjab easily. There had been a marked difference in the form of the two teams. Even if Punjab had won their last match, they were languishing at the bottom of the table.

Mumbai looked far superior, particularly after Rohit Sharma won the toss and chose to bat first. While teams batting second had won the major share of matches this IPL, the pattern in Vishakapatnam had been the opposite.

Punjab captain Murali Vijay and all the experts on television opined that chasing a target in the conditions that prevailed would be very, very tough.

As it transpired, Mumbai’s batting flopped badly and Punjab were left to chase a paltry 125 to win. Would the conditions for batting have become worse, could defending champions Mumbai choke a side’s struggling batsmen?

Apart from getting Hashim Amla, who has looked like a fish out of water in the IPL despite an outstanding record in T20 cricket, Mumbai’s bowlers found no favour from the pitch or the Punjab batsmen. The required runs were knocked off for the loss of just three wickets – and with three overs to spare.

Talking of what works and doesn’t in the shortest format, there has been wide debate on whether stability and continuity of teams works better for a franchise or experimentation and a horses for courses approach, given that the league is played across the country on different grounds and conditions.

Again, those who argued in favour of either proposition would have been left red-faced with the kind of results that have been thrown up. Punjab and Rising Pune Super Giants, for instance, played more or less the same team for the first 4-5 matches and came to grief.

Mumbai, Gujarat Lions, Royal Challengers Bangalore and Kolkata Knight Riders didn’t, at least in the initial stages, relying on their regular and established players to see them through with only minor tinkering. On the other hand, Delhi Daredevils have chosen a dramatically different strategy and gone in for frequent changes.

Delhi’s tactics evoked debate essentially I think because the team mentor is Rahul Dravid whose batting career was defined by an orthodox, no frills approach. But such stereotyping was misplaced because he also understands the texture and tenor of T20 cricket better than most.

Criticism about Delhi’s approach got quickly muted as the team recovered from a horrid first match to start winning fairly regularly. As I write this piece, Delhi are placed third in the points table and poised to make the play-offs.

Talking of how teams are faring, the points table reflects this year’s topsy-turvy competition. Before the season got underway, a majority of fans and experts would have vouched for Pune, Mumbai and Bangalore to be in the top 4: instead, they are in the bottom 4.

The presence of three of India’s biggest stars – M S Dhoni, Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma, and in leadership positions – hasn’t provided the boost expected to their team’s fortunes, though all of them have been in good form; Kohli spectacularly so.

Yet, given the vicissitudes of T20 cricket, it would take a very brave – or foolhardy – person to predict even now, after the tournament is almost three-fourths completed, about which team will win the title: unless, of course, you like the taste of your own trotters and are willing to take the risk!