Chennai: After three years of healthy growth Kharif output could decline his time by 3 to 5 per cent due to lower sowing acreage and yields getting impacted by uneven distribution of rains.
At an estimated 162.2 million tonnes, kharif production of food grains, oil seeds, cotton and jute would be lower than 170.7 million tonnes in 2018, according to Crisil. In 2016 and 2017 kharif production had registered growth and has been higher at 165.2 million tonnes and 168.1 million tonnes respectively.
According to Crisil, after two consecutive years of normal monsoon, India received below-normal rains in 2018, both in terms of spatial distribution and timeliness. As per Ministry of Agriculture, total kharif crop acreage has crossed 975 lakh hectares as on August 23, which is down by 2.3 per cent from corresponding period last year. Rice, sugarcane and groundnut acreage has dwindled the most this season.
Delayed onset of monsoon has already led to a sharp 6.4 per cent decline in paddy sowing as on August 22, 2019. Paddy accounts for over 30 per cent of kharif season acreage.
National Collateral Management Services estimates paddy output to be lower by 0.7 per cent at 101.4 million MT.
Floods in Maharashtra, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh, and weak rains in West Bengal and the Marathwada region of Maharashtra are expected to affect productivity. Additionally, high-intensity rainfall in August is likely to increase pest attacks on maize and paddy further impacting productivity.
"The quick catch-up in southwest monsoon has meant excess rains in August in a few sub-regions. This has affected kharif crops, particularly paddy," Dharm-akirti Joshi, Chief Economist, Crisil.
In case of pulses, Negative farmer sentiment due to lower profitability may pull down pulse acreage and thereby lead to lower output in 2019, finds Crisil. Further, groundnut crop productivity may come down in Gujarat and Karnataka due to erratic rainfall and pest attack. Erratic rainfall and grub infestation can impact crop output of sugarcane in 2019.
"We expect domestic sugar production in SY2020 to decline by 14 per cent Y-o-Y to around 28.2 million MT from 32.9 million MT in SY2019. This will be driven by the lower sugar productions in the states like Maharashtra and Karnataka." said Sabyasachi Majumdar, Senior Vice President & Group Head, Icra Ratings.
