US holidays sales forecast boost gems and jewellery exports; shipments bottom out

Despite recent economic fluctuations, the National Retail Federation (NRF) in the US remains optimistic about the upcoming holiday shopping season. “The economic data calendar was quite busy at the end of October but while there were contradictions and mixed signals, we continue to believe the US economy remains in a good place,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.

The NRF's forecast predicts a 2.5 per cent to 3.5 per cent increase in holiday sales compared to the previous year. This projection is backed by continued consumer spending and a relatively healthy economy.

According to the Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council, prior to the holiday season, the exports have clocked 10 -11 per cent growth in October. “The outlook is good for the holiday season. We had witnessed 11 per cent decline in exports till September and we are confident that exports have bottomed out,” said Vipul Shah, chairman, GJEPC.

In August, hundreds of diamond processing units in Surat had suspended their operations for 10 days amidst oversupply and slower demand from the export markets. “Now we have better control over production,” he added.

Shah is also confident that the March quarter exports will be better. “We are optimistic about the US market as wage growth is outpacing inflation and consumers are expected to maintain their spending power. The geo-political tensions in the Middle East are likely to ease and Europe too is stabilising. If the Chinese stimulus package boosts consumption, our exports will benefit,” he said.

While the US, the largest market for Indian gems and jewellery, predominantly buys polished diamonds and studded jewellery, the Middle East, the third largest market, is a gold jewellery consumer. China buys diamonds through Hong Kong, which is our second largest market. END