Fact Check: Viral graphic of News 24 reporting 2024 Lok Sabha poll predictions is fake

Claim: News 24 published the seat projections of several betting markets depicting a close contest between the NDA and INDIA alliances.

Fact: The claim is false. Manak Gupta of News 24 confirmed that the graphic is fake.

Hyderabad: As the 2024 Lok Sabha elections reach a conclusion with the last phase polling on June 1, a graphic reportedly published by News 24 predicting seat numbers for the BJP-led NDA and Congress-led INDIA alliances is doing rounds on social media.

The graphic shows the prediction of 10 ‘Satta Bazar’ (betting organisations) giving an edge to the NDA alliance over others. Among these, the famous Phalodi Satta Bazar forecasts 253 seats for the NDA and 246 for the INDIA alliance, indicating a closely contested race.

The Indore Sarafa and Surat Maghobi project a clear majority for the NDA, with projections of 283 and 282 seats respectively. The graphic also shows the BJP alone winning around 200-260 seats and Congress around 90-128 as predicted by the Satta Bazars.

A user who shared the graphic (archive) on X wrote, “Satta Bazar puts the NDA number below the majority marks of 272 and gives a near majority to the Congress-led INDIA alliance. Interesting… (sic)”

Another while sharing the graphic (archive) wrote, “Most regional Satta Bazaar figures predict a hung assembly in Lok Sabha. This is huge, at one point this election was looking one-sided. Today, anything is possible on the 4th. What a fight and comeback by INDIA.”

(Source: X/@RoshanKrRaii)

Fact Check

NewsMeter found that the claim is false as no such poll predictions were published by News 24.

Upon close observation, we noticed that while the logo closely resembles the News 24 logo, the text actually reads News 2024, not News 24.

Manak Gupta, the executive editor of News 24, commented on a post sharing the graphic, clarifying that his channel has not published any such story.

Next, we searched for reports on Satta Bazars’ poll predictions but could not find many reports of the betting markets mentioned in the graphic.

However, we came across a Financial Express report on Phalodi Satta Bazar's forecasts from May 24, 2024. In the report, Phalodi Satta Bazar, at the start of the seven-phase elections, has anticipated the BJP to secure 340-350 seats according to the grey market.

However, this estimate was adjusted to 303 seats before the third phase and further revised to 292-296 seats before the fourth phase. The estimates, released a day before the sixth phase, suggested the BJP could secure 304-306 seats independently, while the NDA’s tally could reach 325-330 seats. Conversely, the Congress is expected to secure 60-62 seats, up from earlier predictions of 52-57 seats, as per Phalodi Satta Bazar forecasts.

According to an India Today report dated May 29, betting markets initially predicted an easy win for the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, forecasting 315 to 325 seats for the BJP and 45 to 55 seats for Congress. After three phases, these predictions shifted to 270 to 280 seats for the BJP and 70 to 80 seats for Congress. Following six phases, the forecast was adjusted once more to 295 to 305 seats for the BJP and 55 to 65 seats for Congress.

Hence, we conclude that the projected numbers for the 2024 Lok Sabha election results attributed to different betting organisations were not published by News 24. The graphic is fake.