Columnist Sidharth Bhatia says AAP will go after Cong, which will find it difficult to retaliate.
Volunteers collect donations during address of Yogender Yadav, National Executive member of Aam Aadmi Party(AAP) during first meeting of Aam Aadmi Party at Ballabgarh in Faridabad on Sunday. -PTI
Hyderabad: The spectacular electoral performance of the Aam Aadmi Party in the elections to the Delhi legislature came as a surprise to not just other political parties but also the pundits, who had not taken it seriously at all.
The big rival parties had dismissed it as a toy outfit, at best a nuisance in a game better left to the older, more experienced players.
Now, the sight of an Arvind Kejriwal taking oath in the Ramlila Maidan amidst a sea of supporters and the large numbers of people showing interest in joining the AAP has woken up the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party to the perils of ignoring this new player.
The wise commentators, who had indulgently looked upon the AAP as little more than an interesting idea, too, were taken aback when it ended up with 28 seats in the 70-member House. Now, paeans are being written about it and forecasts are being made that it could be the “game changer” in Indian politics.
Some excitable writers have even posited a Kejriwal vs Modi contest; at the very least, it could get 25 or more seats and scuttle the seemingly inevitable march of Narendra Modi towards the biggest prize of them all.
Predicting the future is an extremely dangerous exercise in electoral politics, especially in a country like India where a large number of variables play a big role, but it is still a useful exercise to examine the AAP phenomenon.
How they got to this place may help us understand where it could go in the future. Is the AAP and its success a one-off event or could it happen again? Here are some factors to consider:
- The Delhi connection — Imagine, if you will, an AAP like organisation emerging and winning in Puducherry, Jharkhand or even Mumbai. Would it have created such a buzz? Being a Delhi party has given it a different cachet, since it is the capital of the country. More than that, it has stood to gain from Delhi’s self-perception of being the “national.”
It’s own views and issues assume far more importance than everyone else’s and its own sense of entitlement is seen as a reflection of what the country wants. The discourse in this hothouse is perceived as setting the national agenda. The AAP took up local causes and got national coverage.
- A friendly media — The “national” media, headquartered in Delhi, is very much part of this cosy consensus. The largely sympathetic coverage given to the AAP over the last year and before that to Anna Hazare’s fasts acted as a force multiplier. The free publicity given to every statement, action and opinion of the AAP catapulted it to countrywide attention.
Spokes-persons of the party were invited to discussions as if they represented a mainstream party; contrast that with the way say, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) is treated. (Despite this AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal said the media, corrupted by hunderds of crores worth of payoffs, was unsympathetic towards his party.)
- Clever cherry picking of causes — The freebie culture is an old one and Indian political parties have been doling out gifts to voters for decades. But where the Akali Dal gives free power to farmers, the Dravida parties give television sets and the Samajwadi Party gives laptops to students, the AAP promised to reduce electricity bills and give away free water.
These are not one-time gifts and make a difference to the household budgets of middle-class families. That the free water will not reach the poor, who don’t have water meters does not matter to the AAP — they know where their votes lie.
- Political positioning — The idea of a non-Congress, non-BJP entity has always been an enticing one. For decades, those who don’t like either of the big party have tried to explore the middle-path — from Jayaprakash Narayan, who mentored the Janata Party in 1977 to V.P. Singh to the various third fronts that crop up from time to time. All have come a cropper after initial success.
The AAP, by attacking both big parties, entered that niche smoothly and picked up traction among those who want to be equidistant from the Congress and the BJP. Yogendra Yadav, the AAP’s ideologue, comes from that tradition and his hand is visible behind the party’s electoral and positioning strategy.
- Arvind Kejriwal — Mr Kejriwal’s many personal qualities have made AAP the organisation it is. His energy, ideas and single-mindedness — some may call it complete lack of self-doubt — about the issues he believes in have proved to be the decisive edge for the party.
Which other politician, especially a newbie would boldly go on television and call Mukesh Ambani or Robert Vadra corrupt, that too without offering proof? The media loved it, not just because it was an exciting copy but also because it allowed them to air views that they would otherwise not be able to. Take away Mr Kejriwal and the AAP is a non-starter.
Read more: AAP not to contest all Lok Sabha seats
These attributes have brought the AAP to this point. Where does it go from here? Running a government is not as easy as being a party of perpetual opposition to everything.
For the moment, the AAP is Teflon-coated, especially with its supporters, and no amount of media questioning will change that. The harsh reality will set in when it has to take some really unpopular decisions.
But it has a window till the Lok Sabha elections — it cannot be toppled till then and its support base is growing, with high-profile people (including free market types from the corporate world) queuing up to join it. It is now in its growth phase.
Yet, it’s long-term future is far from secure. If it does not do well in the Lok Sabha elections, some of its fizz will disappear and it will turn into a regional party, albeit one that is not based on ethnic, religious or caste support. Then some of the factors mentioned earlier, especially media coverage, will reduce, if not vanish.
For the moment it has achieved the near impossible — it has knocked off Narendra Modi from the front pages and given his triumphalist campaign a deadly shock. No longer is the BJP gloating about its inevitable victory. The AAP will also soon go after the Congress, which will find it difficult to retaliate.
Already Congressmen are talking of competitive populism in the cities a la AAP. The new kid on the block is riding high and is likely to stay there for some time.
( Source : dc )
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