So, let's talk green: By 2025, there will be no cars on fifth avenue
Tony Seba, a Stanford University economist, is a marked man. Marked by the oil and gas industry, because of what he is predicting, which is sending shivers down the collective spine of Saudi Arabia, OPEC and other oil producing economies. His predictions have been coming for the last few years, but what he said last week is now being taken seriously.
In a speech he gave in 2014, he showed two pictures - one of the New York Fifth Avenue on Easter day in the year 1900. The road was filled with horse carriages, with just one car. The second picture was taken again on Easter day on 5th avenue but 13 years later, in 1913. The road was filled with cars, and not a single horse carriage. It took just 13 years for a massive disruption in transportation to take place. This happened not because New York ran out of horses, it is because a superior technology in the internal combustion engine took over rapidly. Another massive disruption is now being predicted.
"We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history," Mr Seba said.
This is what he has now predicted will happen by 2025; No more petrol or diesel cars, buses, or trucks will be sold anywhere in the world within eight years. All new vehicles, buses, cars, tractors, vans, will be electric. The entire market for land transport will switch to electrification. People will stop driving altogether, as they will switch to self-drive electric vehicles (EVs) that are 10 times cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near-zero marginal cost of fuel and an expected lifespan of 1.6 million kilometres. Car ownership will be a thing of the past, as most people will adapt to vehicles on demand. It will become harder to find a petrol station, spares, or anybody to fix the 2000 moving parts that bedevil the internal combustion engine. Cities will ban human drivers once the data confirms how dangerous they can be behind a wheel. There will be a "mass stranding of existing vehicles". The value of second-hard cars will plunge. You will have to pay to dispose of your old vehicle.
When you think about it, just from a technology perspective, it all seems plausible, especially when you compare an internal combustion engine of our cars with a EV. As Seba puts it, "A Tesla Model S, which has 18 moving parts, one hundred times fewer than a combustion engine car. Maintenance is essentially zero. That is why Tesla is offering infinite-mile warranties. You can drive it to the moon and back and they will still warranty it." This one fact itself will be music to the ears of all of us who own cars - the maintenance that our existing cars demand. It has long been known that EVs are four times more efficient than petrol or diesel cars, which lose 80 per cent of their power in heat. What changes the equation is the advent of EV models with the acceleration and performance of a Lamborghini costing five or 10 times less to buy, and at least 10 times less to run.
As a result of this disruptive technological surge, he predicts a twin "death spiral" for big oil and big autos. The long-term price of crude will fall to $US25 a barrel, and it will be a existential threat to Ford, General Motors, and the German car industry if they don't pay heed now. The next generation of cars will be "computers on wheels", with the game being played by Google, Apple, and Foxconn's of the world.
While it is clear that all these change are being driven by technological advances and not concern for the environment, it warms the heart of advocates of climate change advocates like me. The dream of not having smoke spewing cars on the road, along with a reduced impact on global warming is a true celebration for humanity. The magic show is about to begin where all our existing cars will soon vanish!
