Monideepa Banerjie | Storm over quotas: Hasina needs to tread with caution

Shahbag did not dethrone Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Nor will the quota agitation that has been rocking Bangladesh over the last 10 days, especially since the Supreme Court stepped in on Sunday. But the wrath of the students on the warpath against a brutal government crackdown that left at least 100 youth dead, according to news agency reports, should come as a warning to Sheikh Hasina, a red flag that she needs to tread with care if she wants to run the full course of her fourth five-year term in power.

Her neighbours, too, must sit up and take notice or one day be confronted with a nasty surprise next door. Especially India, which is also a part of the problem that is pushing Bangladesh to the brink.

The quota problem was brewing forever, specifically since 2018. But it need not have ended up as a confrontation at all between the students and the Prime Minister. Because both were of the same mind — that the quota system needed to be done away with, they believed.

The government of newly-independent Bangladesh introduced the quota system in 1972 for freedom fighters who sacrificed much to wrest freedom from Pakistan in 1971. The system envisaged that 30 per cent of jobs in the civil services would be reserved for the children of the “mukti joddhas”, or freedom fighters, 10 per cent for women, 10 per cent for people from backward districts and around five per cent for ethnic minorities and people with disabilities. That is 56 per cent reservation.

By 2018, students started protesting against the quota system and calls for its withdrawal grew so intense that Sheikh Hasina, in one fell swoop, did away with it by government order. All was well till 2021 when some people petitioned the Dhaka high court to restored the quotas. The high court on June 5 this year ordered the reinstallation of the quota system. The government went to the Supreme Court, which was to hear the matter on August 7. It was compelled to take up the issue ahead of time on July 21 due to the widespread violence, and it ordered exactly what both the agitating students and the government wanted: to do away with the quota system.

But on July 14, all hell had already broken loose.

On that day, a press conference was held by Sheikh Hasina on her return from China, where she had one-on-one meetings with President Xi Jinping. The headline came from a question on the Teesta water dispute between Dhaka and Delhi. Asked if China offered to help out with a project to solve the problem, Sheikh Hasina said yes, but since the river originated in India and since India would decide how much water it was willing to give, it would be better if India handled the project.

The excitement over Sheikh Hasina’s tilt to India instead of China drowned out the question asked much earlier on the quota agitation. It was Sheikh Hasina’s response to this question that triggered the conflagration of the past 10 days. She said: “Why so much anger at the mukti joddhas? They are saying the progeny of mukti jodhdhas should not get jobs on quota. Then, do they want only children of razakars to enjoy the benefits? What is the fault of people who risked their lives and families, who braved rain and shine and fought for freedom of this country?”

Now, “razakar” is a dirty word in Bangladesh, an insult much worse than anti-national in India, and equivalent, broadly, to traitor. It was the name of an East Pakistan paramilitary force set up by an ordinance in May 1971 by one Gen. Tikka Khan of the Pakistan Army just before the Bangladesh liberation war and known to be brutal and indulging in what Bangladesh calls “war crimes”.

No wonder the students, already sore from the long wait for justice over quotas, took umbrage at Sheikh Hasina’s words and went ballistic. They marched down Dhaka’s streets, shouting: “Who are you? Who am I? Razakar. Razakar. Who says so? Who says so? The autocrat. The autocrat.” The battlelines were breached.

There was another alleged blunder by the government widely reported in the news on the violence.

Instead of leaving the police to tackle the students, the ruling Awami League allegedly unleashed its students’ wing Chattra League, who then proceeded to execute the party’s orders to break up the students’ agitations in the most ghastly fashion. At last count, as many as 130 people are reported dead. The Supreme Court has now scaled down the quota for freedom fighters’ families from 30 per cent to five per cent and two per cent for other minority groups. Does that mean the storm has blown over for Bangladesh?

Most unlikely. The students have demanded the release of all arrested colleagues before they get off the streets. Opposition parties BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami have reportedly joined the agitation and will not allow the disturbance to die down in a hurry as the situation is an embarrassment for their political rival Sheikh Hasina. Finally, there is the really serious problem of millions of young men and women who have no jobs. Quota or no quota, till that problem is addressed, Bangladesh’s students will remain restive and periodically rear their head in rebellion.

Sheikh Hasina has her hands full and her work cut out. India’s big worry is how to keep the neighbourhood undisturbed. In its book, Sheikh Hasina has done a great job in the last 15 years keeping fundamentalist troublemakers at bay and wants her to remain in charge. That rules out India winning a popularity contest in Bangladesh anytime soon. For large sections of that country, India is not a friendly neighbour but a big brother, backing Sheikh Hasina despite her flawed election wins. But dogged by trouble with its northern and western neighbours, India is determined to ensure that, quota or no, all remains quiet on the eastern front at least.