BJP happy as opposition vote gets divided in Udhampur; but faces tough fight from Congress in Jammu

She added, “I don’t know how and where they utilised the funds that were, as per official announcements, earmarked by the government for our constituency. Like we do get the details about replenishing our mobile number's balances and some other services, we must be able to track through our phones also how much money they got, how much of it has been used and where and how much is left to be spend”.

Ms. Dubey was not alone in seeking to make the BJP accountable to the voters. “A political party which seeks to represent the people and to take decisions on their behalf must be ready for retribution for unfulfilled trust or violated obligation by it,” said another voter Ratan Lal.

However, all the indications are that anti-incumbency and anti-BJP vote in Udhampur constituency which went to the polls in the first of the seven-phase Lok Sabha elections has split between Congress candidate Chaudhary Lal Singh and Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) nominee Ghulam Muhammad Saroori. Also, low voter turnout recorded in predominantly Muslim Assembly segments and purported Congress bastions compared to those of the BJP has made the saffron party hopeful of winning this seat with a huge victory margin.

Union minister of state Jitendra Singh is eyeing a third term after winning the Udhampur seat for the BJP in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

On the other hand, even though the Congress has been mindful of the resentment in the conformist vote bank among the Muslims over its picking up as its candidate someone who had sided with the perpetrators of the gangrape and murder of an 8-year-old nomadic Gujjar girl that took place in the constituency’s Kathua district in 2018, it hopes it has been able to crash in on it in both Udhampur and Jammu constituencies with the support of the National Conference (NC).

The NC, a constituent of the I.N.D.I.A. bloc, has not fielded its candidates on these two seats and the lone Ladakh seat and is instead supporting the Congress candidates in all the three constituencies. The Congress has reciprocated it by opting out of contest on three remaining seats of Jammu and Kashmir viz-Anantnag-Rajouri, Srinagar and Baramulla.

Both the Congress and NC expect the Gujjar vote which can drive the results in many Assembly segments in, at least, two of the five J&K Lok Sabha constituencies can sway in their favour. Their hope lies in the fact that Gujjars who together with Bakarwals comprise about 15 percent of J&K’s population are unhappy with the Narendra Modi government over it including the erstwhile state’s 0ne million Pahari speaking community to the Schedule Tribe as they think the move will dilute their reservation rights.

Conversely, the BJP is quite confident that the Centre’s providing ST status to Pahari, Paddari, Koli and Gadda Brahmins communities through legislation in February this year will benefit it in the elections in J&K. Also, over half a dozen predominantly Muslim Assembly segments of the Jammu Lok Sabha constituency were detached from it and included in the Anantnag constituency through the recent delimitation process to make it secure for the saffron party as was alleged by the opposition.

The BJP has shaped its poll narrative around the “positive impacts” of abrogation of Article 370 in J&K. But despite all these factors the party is facing a tough contest in the Jammu constituency where it like Udhampur seeks a hat-trick of wins after repeating sitting MP Jugal Kishore Sharma and is vigorously working to fortify its support base. The Congress has fielded the working president of its J&K unit and former minister Raman Bhalla from Jammu which will go to vote in the second phase of elections on April 26.