New Delhi: With a stupendous electoral victory in the high-stakes election in Maharashtra, Christmas came early for the BJP. In a mixed electoral outcome, while the Mahayuti -- comprising the BJP, the Shiv Sena (Shinde) and NCP (Ajit Pawar) -- displayed its political dominance in Maharashtra, the BJP faltered in tribal-dominated Jharkhand. While the Mahayuti in Maharashtra inched towards a landslide victory, securing nearly 233 of the 288 seats, the Maha Vikas Agadi (MVA) struggled to reach even 50 seats. In Jharkhand, however, the JMM-Congress combine is all set to return to power as the alliance led in 50 of the 81 Assembly seats. The BJP trailed far behind, with 24 berths.
Besides scripting a brute majority in Maharashtra, the BJP also swept the critical Uttar Pradesh Assembly bypolls, winning six of nine Assembly seats. With both Haryana and Maharashtra now firmly under its control, the BJP is expected to make a strong pitch for its long-standing proposal of “One Nation, One Election” in the coming Parliament session. However, after the Assembly elections in Haryana, Jharkhand and Maharashtra, all eyes are now on the forthcoming polls in Delhi and Bihar.
Recording its best-ever performance by touching nearly 133 seats on its own, the BJP seemed to have strengthened its grip on the chief minister’s chair in Maharashtra. As the Mahayuti secured a gain of 42 seats, the MVA recorded a loss of at least 25 seats.
The humiliating defeat in the high-stakes Maharashtra polls has put the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the Congress at the political crossroads. For Uddhav Thackeray, the loss could be hard to swallow. After a disappointing performance compared to the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, the Uddhav Thackeray faction might need to take a long, hard look at its political future. The Maharashtra results also delivered a body blow to the Maratha strongman, Sharad Pawar, who indicated that this could be his “last elections”.
Expressing “gratitude” to the “brothers and sisters” of Maharashtra, Prime Minister Narendra Modi posted on X: “Development wins! Good governance wins! United we will soar even higher”.
Leader of the Opposition in Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi described the Maharashtra results as “unprecedented” and said that it “required introspection”. He congratulated JMM chief minister Hemant Soren for his victory in Jharkhand.
The Congress, which has been struggling to regain ground in Maharashtra for years, has now plunged deeper into an existential crisis. The Congress, which fielded 101 candidates, managed to lead in only 21 constituencies. Similarly, the Shiv Sena (UBT), led by former chief minister Uddhav Thackeray, could only manage to lead in 18 of the 95 seats it contested. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), led by Sharad Pawar, fared only marginally better, leading in 12 of the 86 seats it contested. In stark contrast the BJP emerged as a clear winner, securing 126 of the 149 seats it contested. The Shiv Sena (Shinde) bagged 56 of the 81 seats it fought for and the NCP faction led by Ajit Pawar secured 38 of the 59 seats. An angry and beleaguered Sanjay Raut, leader of Shiv Sena (UBT), refused to accept the poll outcome and shot back: “Kuchch toh gadbad hain” (something is fishy).
Besides crawling back to power virtually by piggybacking on the JMM in Jharkhand, the other comforting news for the Congress on Saturday was Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s impressive victory in the Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency by a staggering margin of over four lakh votes.
While the INDIA bloc, particularly the Congress and SS (UBT), struggled to forge a cohesive narrative, the Mahayuti government’s “Ladki Bahin Yojana”, under which the state has been providing Rs 1,500 to women over the last four months, seems to have hit the bull’s eye with the electorate, particularly women voters. With the party surging ahead, the BJP’s face in Maharashtra, Devendra Fadnavis, took to X to reinforce the party’s narrative by posting: “Ek hain to safe hain”. Indicating that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s magic has worked again, he added: “Modi hain toh mumkin hain”.
While the BJP deployed all its resources and muscle in the Maharashtra polls, quietly, but significantly, the RSS played a key role in securing a stunning win. At the ground level, the RSS organised local events, meetings with community leaders and established a direct line of communication with voters.
After a seesaw battle earlier in the day, the JMM-Congress alliance surged ahead of the BJP-AJSU combine in Jharkhand. After being arrested earlier this year by the ED in a money-laundering case, chief minister Hemant Soren staged a stunning comeback. Defying exit poll predictions, the JMM was on track to form a government for the third consecutive time. Unlike Maharashtra, the BJP’s Hindutva pitch -- “Batenge toh Katenge” -- the scare-mongering campaign by invoking the perils of “illegal infiltrators from Bangladesh grabbing the jal, zameen, jungle” of the tribals failed to work in this tribal land.
While the BJP orchestrated a high-pitched nationalistic and “divisive” campaign, the Hemant Soren government focused on promoting its welfare schemes which also included the “Maiya Samman Yojana” -- enabling eligible women to receive Rs 1,000 per month. Stealing a page from former Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s “Ladli Bahena” scheme, both the Maharashtra and Jharkhand governments relied heavily on welfare schemes for women. It was felt that the JMM victory has been significantly propelled by strong support from women voters. Sixty-eight of the 81 Assembly constituencies recorded a higher turnout of women voters. A section of BJP leaders indicated that the arrest of the chief minister before the elections also hurt the party as it created a sympathy wave in favour of the ruling coalition. “The JMM made the election a Hemant vs BJP contest,” a senior BJP leader said.
As for the Congress, it has once again emerged as the weak link for its alliance partners. Nearly five months after it showed a sign of resurgence, winning 99 seats in the Lok Sabha, the party seemed to be groping in the dark all over again. The party lacked a narrative, besides reiterating the Lok Sabha slogan -- “Sangvidhan khatre mein hain” (Constitution is in danger). The “Constitution is under threat”, which seemed to have resonated at the national level during the Lok Sabha elections, fell flat in the Assembly polls. While the Mahayuti’s welfare schemes clicked, the MVA’s assurances on a farm loan waiver and caste census failed to find its mark with voters. Moreover, the Congress’ star campaigner, Rahul Gandhi, made only four visits to the state as compared to at least nine election rallies by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
