BENGALURU: After successive droughts in 2014 and 2015, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had predicted rains “above normal” levels this monsoon for the whole of India. But most of the regions in Karnataka have received rains “below normal” levels. Even though the rainfall has been classified as “normal” by the IMD, the rains were intermittent throughout the season.
Experts say that the very system of prediction followed by the IMD should change. The state as a whole received 13% deficit rain during the south-west monsoon till Sep 7th.
According to IMD data, Karnataka received 612 mm rain between June 1, 2016 and Sept 13, 2016 as against the normal 704 mm rainfall. Coastal region had a deficit of 22%, while places like Chamarajanagar, Kodagu and Chikkamagalur, recorded 33%, 34% and 35% deficit rain respectively during the season.
Stressing on the need for regional forecasts by the IMD, Captain Raja Rao, a former irrigation secretary said, "The IMD had predicted a normal monsoon. But the prevailing scenario in the states under the Cauvery basin has proved the IMD predictions wrong."
Speaking to Deccan Chronicle, Mr Srinivas Reddy, director, Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Center (KSNDMC) said, "As the IMD predicted normal rainfall, farmers after successive droughts had made preparations to sow crops which would need good rain and irrigation. But the rainfall recorded in the region till now has had a deficit of 11%."
Mr S.S.M. Gavaskar, scientist with the KSNDMC said, "There is a need to revisit the forecast models of the IMD. At present, the IMD is giving predictions for the entire country by dividing it into 4 regions- (a) North-West India, (b) Central India, (c) East and North-East India and (d) South Peninsular India."
There is a strong need for region-focused rainfall. As per South Peninsular India, we were supposed to receive rainfall of above 591.0 mm. But till September 7, we received only 525.1mm showing a shortfall of 11%. Dr Geetha Agnihotri, Head of Observations, India Meteorological Department, Bangalore was not available for comment.
