Hyderabad: With scanty rainfall forecast from July 25 to 31, the month will end on a dry note. The first three weeks of August are also not likely to see heavy rainfall. There is a possibility of weak currents picking up strength in the last 10 days of August. The September forecast again shows most days as sunny or cloudy and with light to moderate rainfall.
If there is not much rainfall in August, the total amount of rainfall will be below average in the state. July and August are the peak monsoon months in Telangana, with much of the rainfall received during these 60 days. If the quantum of rainfall is below average, drought conditions may prevail in the state. Retired professor of meteorology at Andhra University, Bhanu Kumar, says that low pressure and depression in the Bay of Bengal could bring more rain.
Nagarjuna sagar does not have its own catchment area, it depends on Srisailam.
“There are indications of depression in August. In mid-July, the depression helped the state receive heavy showers. However, the monsoon trough (depression) moved towards Odisha and central India. Unless the system in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea changes, there won’t be any excess rainfall. This year, so far, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh fall in the normal rainfall bracket,” he said.
The south-west monsoon depends on three parameters: Wind storm, surface pressure over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea (monsoon currents gain strength when there is a low pressure over the two giant water bodies) and weather conditions south of the equator and southern continents.
“The monsoon currents need these parameters to favour it, to gain intensity. If the prediction continues to be light to moderate rainfall, the quantum of rain may not be sufficient for agriculture. Currently, the monsoon is weak but alive,” said C.V.V. Bahadram, retired deputy director of the Indian Meteorological Department.
There was normal rainfall in July because of the depression that developed over west-central Bay of Bengal, off the Odisha coast. This has now travelled westwards and reached Kutch in Gujarat and south Rajasthan. Due to this, very heavy rains were recorded in Odisha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and the Vidarbha region of Maharashtra. Thus, there has been a good inflow in reservoirs in Maharashtra and Karnataka which has brought water to the two Telugu speaking states.
Maharashtra and Karnataka will experience mainly dry weather conditions.
North east India, too, will remain dry with occasional light rains. Most of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh will also stay dry.
Rain in the state
The state has received 4% excess rainfall so far in July
Right now, rainfall in TS has been categorised as ‘normal;
The state received 53% excess rainfall in June.
