The message from the BJP President to the party leadership in Karnataka was crystal clear - Unite or Exit! For those tracking developments in the state, the move seems to have come a bit late in the day and led to the projection of the BJP in Karnataka as a party that was once again plagued by incessant infighting, damaging both the unity in the local chapter and its larger public image. It would be interesting to see the impact of the ‘damage-control’ exercise by the BJP's National President as the mistrust and divisions run so deep that a mere directive from the ‘high command’ may not easily ‘wish away’ the crisis that has built up over time.
The discord, disunity and dissatisfaction with the state unit of the BJP need to be viewed from multiple perspectives. Several factors merit detailed analysis to understand the dilemmas of the central leadership in dealing with the Karnataka conundrum.
Firstly, Karnataka is critical in the BJP's vision of a 'Congress free India' (Congress Mukt Bharat). This is the only major state of the country where the party is in power. In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the state where the Congress won its largest number of seats allowing it to manage a national total of 44 seats was Karnataka though it conceded a larger share to the BJP in the state. With state elections due in less than eighteen months, the BJP is keen to win back its first bastion in the South of the Vindhyas.
This brings one to the second factor. Karnataka's was the BJP's launching pad in the South of India. It was the first state in which it managed to come to power on its own strength in 2008. It is another story that it frittered away the public mandate on account of the range of corruption charges against its leadership, infighting and split in the party and its comprehensive defeat in the 2013 Assembly elections.
The 2013 elections was more a vote against the BJP than a vote for the Congress which came to power in those elections. Given the way the Congress government has trudged along in the last three and a half years, many would argue that the situation is tailor-made for yet another reversal of electoral fortunes. Some would even assert that since 1985, Karnataka has never re-elected its ruling party.
It could be claimed that the 2004 elections was an exception but even in the poll, the Congress was squarely defeated but managed to stitch a hasty alliance of mutual convenience with the JD(S) and come to power. Given this trend, there could be an element of complacency within the state BJP that 2018 would see the ‘natural’ law of electoral outcomes to play out and result in the voting out of the ruling party. Given the current infighting in the party, the BJP could well snatch defeat from the jaws of victory!
Thirdly, while public memory is short, it is not difficult for developments to once again revive those unhappy recollections from the recent past. If the BJP faced an electoral drubbing in the 2013 Assembly elections it was on account of its incessant infighting and split in the party. Its five years in power were marked by internal bickering and frequent skirmishes between leaders.
The voters in the state gave their categorical response to these developments by consigning the party to the opposition benches. As the main Opposition, if it continues to display the same divisiveness, infighting, factionalism and one-upmanship it could well be an ideal recipe for imminent disaster.
This fact has clearly played on the minds of the central leadership of the party and forced it to crack the whip. One would recall that when B.S. Yeddyurappa was once again made the state party President, reports clearly indicated that the mandate he received from the central leadership was to carry all sections of the party and encourage collective decision making.
One could argue that the present imbroglio is a direct consequence of this mandate not being adhered to. Given the fact that the BJP has been intensely faction ridden with many state level leaders (including the President of the State unit) having returned to the party fold just over three years ago, it was imperative that the deep divisions in the party were not allowed to continue and the mistrust and antagonism of the past were effectively addressed. Sufficient efforts do not seem to have been made in either direction. The BJP hopes to ride ‘piggy-back’ on the goodwill of its central leadership.
This approach could faces two challenges. Bihar and Delhi have shown that banking on central leadership is not necessarily the best solution. Further, any setback for BJP in the state elections in 2017 could well make it counterproductive to exclusively bank on the central leadership to win a state assembly poll.
The present crisis in the state unit of the party is a direct by-product of this mistrust and past antagonism. In promoting the Sangoli Rayanna Brigade, Eshwarappa hopes to emerge as the spokesperson of the OBCs and carve out that political space to challenge Yeddyurappa who is seen as a dominant caste leader.
The compromise formula suggested to Eshwarappa to continue the OBC mobilization under the banner of the party does not appear to resolve the root of the problem which is likely to rear its head sooner than later. As a result, the public image that is portrayed of the party is often reminiscent of past developments and would do very little in positive terms to position it in the run up to the elections as a viable alternative to the current ruling party in the state.
Finally, both the Congress and the BJP in Karnataka seem to be playing a game of ‘competitive factionalism’. The manner in which the Congress has functioned as a ruling party in the last three years has provided enough proof of deep divisions between ‘insiders’ and ‘outsiders’, ‘loyalists’ and ‘negative new comers’, ‘party’ and ‘government’. Each faction has its leaders and each leader is busy protecting their political turf. Will the factionalism in the opposition BJP trump the factionalism of the ruling Congress is the crucial element in this ‘competitive factionalism’.
Rather than an election where the two major rivals make a serious bid for power on the strength of their policies, priorities and programmes they seem to be more keen to derive mileage from the negativism of their opponents. The Karnataka voter definitely deserves a better deal!
The writer is Pro Vice-Chancellor, Jain University
