Monsoon to hit state in two days, says Cochin University of Science and Technology
KOCHI: Even as widespread rains lashed different parts of the state on Monday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that Sunday’s low-pressure area over the southeast Arabian sea off Kerala-Karnataka coasts had become well-marked low-pressure area over the same area. Under its influence, the squally weather is likely over Southeast Arabian sea off Kerala-Karnataka coast, Maldives-Comorin area and Lakshadweep area during next 72 hours. On the other hand, a scientist with Cusat warned of frequent stronger storms in the Arabian Sea shortly.
The IMD has also said that southwest monsoon has further advanced into some more parts of southeast Arabian Sea, Maldives -Comorin area, and conditions are becoming favourable for further advancement into some more parts of south Arabian Sea, remaining parts of Comorin-Maldives area, some parts of Lakshadweep, during next 24 hours. Also, conditions are likely to become favourable for further advancement of southwest monsoon into remaining parts of the south Arabian Sea and some parts of central Arabian Sea during the next 2¬3 days.
“Kerala is already witnessing widespread rain which shows the advancement of southwest monsoon. It is expected to hit the entire state in one or two days, and the IMD will officially declare it,” said Dr M. G. Manoj, the research scientist with Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research of Cochin University of Science and Technology “Kerala has received normal than above (> 20%) seasonal thundershowers for this summer period (from March 1 to May 23).
One major factor for this year's heavy convective activity has been the enhanced sea surface temperature (SST) of the Arabian Sea and low-pressure systems and cyclonic circulation," he pointed out. "For the past few years, the months of April and May had been a nightmare for Keralites due to increased surface temperature and associated heat stroke issues. However, this year gifted us with ample showers," he said.
"This year's increased frequency and intensity of thunderstorms associated with lightning and gusty winds require special attention as the background ocean state has the upper hand in controlling the atmospheric features over the State."
"The enhanced SST acts as a heat source for the generation of heavy storms. Besides, the large-scale oscillation of the cloud band around the tropics, known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation has been rigorous over the north Indian Ocean, which could trigger a conducive atmosphere for the formation of frequent low-pressure systems and depressions.
Generally, the Bay of Bengal is more convectively active compared to the Arabian Sea. However, recent studies suggest that there could be even more frequent stronger storms in the Arabian Sea compared to its history that can be expected soon. Supportive of this study, there had been at least four-to-five low-pressure systems formed in the Arabian Sea in this pre-monsoon season itself," Dr Manoj said.
