India Expands Nuclear Stockpile to 190 Warheads: SIPRI Report

The report said India's nuclear modernisation programme is increasingly focused on developing long-range weapons capable of reaching targets across China, while continuing to address its long-standing strategic rivalry with Pakistan.

SIPRI also described Operation Sindoor and the India-Pakistan military confrontation in May 2025 as "an unusually severe military crisis" between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.

According to the report, the cross-border tensions saw India strike Pakistani air and missile bases that were likely to have nuclear-related roles. However, SIPRI noted that both countries took steps to avoid further escalation.

The think tank also highlighted that India and Pakistan integrated cyber operations into active military conflict for the first time during the crisis, reflecting the evolving nature of deterrence and warfare in South Asia.

India retained its position as the world's fifth-largest military spender in 2025, with defence expenditure rising by 8.9 per cent year-on-year to USD 92.1 billion. The country ranked behind only the United States, China, Russia and Germany in military spending.

The report further identified India as the world's second-largest importer of major arms during the 2021-25 period, accounting for 8.2 per cent of global arms imports. Ukraine emerged as the largest arms importer, followed by India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Pakistan. Together, the five countries accounted for 35 per cent of global arms imports.

SIPRI estimated that India's nuclear arsenal grew to around 190 warheads by early 2026. Pakistan, meanwhile, continued developing new delivery systems and accumulating fissile material, suggesting its nuclear stockpile could expand further in the coming decade.

At the start of 2026, the world's nine nuclear-armed states — the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel — possessed an estimated 12,187 nuclear weapons. Of these, around 9,745 warheads were held in military stockpiles and considered potentially operational.

An estimated 4,012 warheads were deployed with operational forces, while between 2,100 and 2,200 were maintained on high operational alert, primarily on ballistic missiles.

SIPRI noted that while the total number of nuclear warheads globally continues to decline, the reduction is largely due to the dismantling of retired weapons by the United States and Russia.

"Notably, the number of warheads being dismantled annually appears to be decreasing and it seems likely that the rate at which retired warheads are dismantled will soon be outpaced by the rate at which new warheads enter global stockpiles," the report stated.

The United States and Russia together possess nearly 86 per cent of the world's nuclear weapons and continue to pursue extensive nuclear modernisation programmes. China is also rapidly expanding its arsenal, which SIPRI estimates increased from 600 to as many as 620 warheads during the year.

The report noted that India and Israel primarily rely on plutonium for their nuclear weapons programmes, while submarine-based nuclear delivery systems are becoming increasingly prevalent, particularly among nuclear-armed states in the Indo-Pacific region.

SIPRI also observed a sharp rise in interstate armed conflicts, with the number doubling from three in 2024 to six in 2025. These conflicts involved at least 13 countries, including the India-Pakistan confrontation, the Iran-Israel/United States conflict, the Russia/North Korea-Ukraine war, and clashes involving Afghanistan-Pakistan, Cambodia-Thailand, and Congo-Rwanda.

In his introduction to the report, SIPRI Director Karim Haggag said the past decade has fundamentally altered the global strategic environment, driven by the return of large-scale interstate warfare and the erosion of traditional alliance structures.

He added that Asia and Oceania continued to witness heightened strategic competition between China and the United States throughout 2025, shaping the region's evolving security landscape.