If the forecasts hold, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) — which currently rules Delhi — could face serious fallout in Punjab, where it holds a brute majority in the 117-member Assembly, as well as in the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD).
New Delhi:Exit polls project a BJP victory in the Delhi Assembly elections, potentially ending a 32-year wait for the party’s return to power in the national capital. If the forecasts hold, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) — which currently rules Delhi — could face serious fallout in Punjab, where it holds a brute majority in the 117-member Assembly, as well as in the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD).
Since its formation 12 years ago, AAP has expanded beyond Delhi by tapping into the Congress’ core vote bank. A loss in Delhi would bolster the Congress and other Opposition parties like the BJP and Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) ahead of Punjab’s 2027 polls. AAP already contends with governance challenges in Punjab, including law and order issues and administrative inefficiencies. Any defeat in Delhi could deepen internal dissent within the party’s Punjab unit.
The MCD, a significant power base for AAP since it unseated the BJP in 2022, could also see shifts if AAP loses the Assembly. Though the party currently holds 124 seats in the 250-member civic body, the absence of anti-defection laws means councilors can switch sides freely. A setback in Delhi may embolden defections and alter the city’s civic landscape.
Pollsters predict the BJP could secure 40–50 seats in the 70-member Assembly, with AAP’s tally dropping to 20–30. The Congress is expected to remain a distant third, making minimal gains. While exit polls are not definitive, BJP leaders credit Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership for the positive projections, while AAP leaders express guarded optimism.
Emerging from an anti-corruption movement in 2012, AAP scored decisive wins in Delhi in 2015 and 2020, having briefly formed a coalition government with Congress for 49 days in 2013. A possible defeat in 2025 would force a major reevaluation of AAP’s strategy, while reinforcing the BJP’s position both nationally and regionally.
With final results expected on February 8, the political future of Delhi and ripple effects across Punjab and the MCD hang in the balance. If AAP is unseated, former chief minister Arvind Kejriwal’s leadership will face renewed scrutiny, and the party will likely focus on rebuilding voter trust and reorganising for subsequent elections. For the BJP, a victory would represent a historic reclamation of Delhi and another milestone in its wider electoral success.
