Exit Polls Split Over Bengal; See Return Of UDF In Kerala

New Delhi: Will the BJP finally breach the heavily fortified bastion of Trinamul Congress in West Bengal? The verdict is split on this. While some pollsters claimed that the BJP has an edge in Bengal and the state may finally slip out of Mamata Banerjee's grasp after the tightly contested election, there are a few who felt that the TMC will be back in the saddle, even with numbers reduced in the Assembly. In Kerala the pollsters have indicated a clear change of government with Congress-led UDF snatching the state back from the LDF. However, status quo is predicted in Assam, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

Himanta Biswa Sarma of the BJP is expected to lead the NDA for a hat-trick in Assam, and DMK’s M.K. Stalin will see through his party for a second term. NDA is also expected to be back again in Puducherry. However, Exit Polls often tend to go wrong.

The Poll of Exit Polls by India Today claimed that in West Bengal no party will manage to reach the majority mark of 148 on its own with the TMC stopping at 147 and the BJP at 137. NDTV’s Polls of Polls showed the TMC getting 142 and the BJP 143 in closely contested, aggressively fought elections.

West Bengal has a total of 294 seats. Here the People's Pulse predicted 177-187 seats for the TMC, 95-110 for the BJP, 0-1 for the Left Front and 1-3 for the the Congress. Janmat Polls also predicted 195-205 seats for the TMC and 80-90 for the the BJP. On the contrary, P-Marg predicted 150-175 for the BJP and 118-138 for the TMC. It gave zero to both the Left and the Congress in the state. Matrize too predicted a BJP edge in the state, with 146-161 seats and the TMC getting 125-140. Axis My India decided to hold its predictions for West Bengal for the time being.

For pollsters, getting voters to speak on their choice of candidates or who would form government in West Bengal has been never so difficult as this time. Ahead of Exit Polls, Pradeep Gupta of Axis My India claimed that in West Bengal his team noticed a massive "fear factor" amplified by SIR concerns and political polarisation due to which voters were reluctant to speak. According to Gupta, nearly 60 per cent of voters refused to reveal their voting preference, compared to just 20-30 per cent in previous elections. "Out of 10 people, only two or three would reveal their voting preference," he told NDTV adding this made it difficult for the pollsters to make proper analysis.

The ECI has deployed 700 companies of Central paramilitary forces that will remain stationed for some days after results to prevent any post poll violence.

gave a mixed response but a few indicated that BJP will finally form government in the state that has been for long out of its reach.

In Kerala, the decade old regime of LDF Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan may finally come to an end this time. The state that witnesses "revolving door" kind of results where the incumbent government is changed every five years, Vijayan had managed to break the pattern in 2021 when he led the Left front to a second term. But time, as exit polls claimed, apart from the anti-incumbency factor, the consolidation of minority votes in favour of the UDF appears to have shifted the mood toward the Congress.

In Kerala, the Polls of Polls predicted 77 seats for the UDF and 59 for LDF. Kerala Assembly has a total of 140 seats with the winning mark being 71. Axis My India forecast that the UDF would get 78-90 seats, LDF 49-62 and NDA 0-3. People's Pulse predicted the Congress-led UDF would get 75-85 seats, the LDF 55-65 and the NDA 0-3. Matrize forecast 60-65 seats for the LDF, 70-75 seats for the UDF and 3-5 seats for the NDA.

In Tamil Nadu, the Polls of Polls predicted the return of DMK’s M.K.Stalin as the CM with victory on 130 seats out of 234, with the magic mark being 118. The rival AIADMK is expected to get 65 seats and debutant Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) led by actor-turned-politician Vijay, just about 31. The People's Pulse predicted 125-145 for the DMK-led alliance, 65-80 for AIADMK-BJP and 18-24 for TVK. Matrize predicted that the DMK-Congress would get 122-132, NDA 87-100 and TVK 10-12. However, Axis My India exit poll predicted 98-120 seats for debutant Vijay's TVK saying 68 per cent of first time voters backed TVK.

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma may be heading for a hat-trick this time as all exit polls predicted a thumping 88 seats victory for the BJP led alliance in the state and the Congress settling at 27 in the 126 seats Assembly where 64 is needed for simple majority.

Axis My India predicted a sweep for the BJP in Assam, forecasting 88-100 seats and 24-36 seats for the Congress and its partners. People's Pulse predicted that the NDA would get 68-72 seats while the Congress plus would secure in the range of 22-26 seats. Matrize said the NDA is likely to get between 85-95 seats and the Congress and its allies 25-32.

In the 30-seat Assembly of UT Puducherry, the Polls of Polls predicted 17 for BJP and 9 for the Congress. Axis My India predicted 16-20 seats for the NDA and 6-8 for the DMK-Congress. It also said the TVK is likely to get 2-4 seats in the Assembly.