The department said El Niño Southern Oscillation-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific are evolving towards El Niño conditions.
New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday that rainfall across the country this month is most likely to be above normal while the north may experience above normal heat. Director-General, meteorology, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra also predicted early onset of monsoon over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, around May 14-16. The normal date is May 20.
Earlier, Skymet and European forecasters had predicted early onset of the monsoon over Kerala, against the regular date of June 1. The likely date when the rain clouds hit Kerala has now been tentatively put at May 25. However, there was no update on the forecast of a deficit monsoon, under the impact of El Nino conditions.
Reviewing April, the IMD said most parts of the country recorded normal to below-normal maximum temperatures, except southern peninsular India, which saw above-normal temperatures. It added that seven western disturbances affected the country during the month.
"Minimum temperatures are expected to be above normal across many parts of the country," Mohapatra said. "However, many areas of northwest India, along with some parts of Central India and adjoining areas of peninsular India and southern parts of northeast India, are likely to experience normal to below-normal minimum temperatures," he said.
The department said El Niño Southern Oscillation-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific are evolving towards El Niño conditions. Its Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System indicates the possible development of El Niño during the southwest monsoon season.
The IMD said above-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country, except some areas of east, northeast and east-central India, where below-normal rainfall is expected.
Above normal heatwave days are likely in parts of the Himalayan foothills, east coast states, Gujarat and Maharashtra in May.
