VISAKHAPATNAM: The Southwest monsoon delayed its onset over mainland Kerala and it is expected to reach Andhra Pradesh in another 10 days, says the weatherman.
The IMD said on Thursday, “Conditions were favourable for the monsoon to advance over Maldives and Comorin area and some parts of South Bay of Bengal and East Central Bay of Bengal during the next 48 hours.”
Private website Skymet said the onset of the Monsoon has been delayed over Port Blair (Bay of Bengal) and Sri Lanka by over a week. “It is likely to reach Sri Lanka and Maldives in the next 48 hours. The next stopover in Kerala will happen next week.”
The Southwest Monsoon over Kerala has stringent criteria. It is a combination of winds, clouds and rainfall over specified areas over the equatorial Indian Ocean, Lakshadweep Islands, Kerala and coastal Karnataka, it said.
“The onset of Monsoon is not likely before May 10. Since 1971, the earliest onset was on May 18, 2004. The year 2014 happened to be a drought year. The criterion for announcing the onset is complex enough to find a copybook declaration,” it said.
It went on to say, “If, after May 10, some 60 per cent of the available 14 stations-- namely Minicoy, Amini Devi, Thiruvananthapuram, Punalur, Kollam, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Kochi, Thrissur, Kozhikode, Thalassery, Kannur, Kudulu and Mangalore -- report rainfall of 2.5mm or more for two consecutive days, the onset of Monsoon over Kerala can be declared on the second day. This provided that the other criteria of winds and clouds also find concurrence.”
The onset of monsoon over various parts is depicted by the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM).
The first burst of monsoon over the mainland mostly covers a major portion of Kerala, nearly half of Tamil Nadu, and central and northeast Bay of Bengal, stopping short of the northeastern states of Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
As per normal dates, the monsoon reaches Mumbai and Kolkata between June 10 and 12. The monsoon arrival date for Delhi has now been revised to June 27 from its earlier projection of June 29, the website said.
