It was a bit of a coincidence that Chennai and Tamil Nadu should get some rain on December 1. The storm’s bark may have been worse than its ‘byte’ as the fury predicted did not quite turn out to be as intense. It is unscientific to look at such chronological coincidences since the forces of nature do not operate to mankind’s universal Gregorian calendar. Even so, it was with a sense of foreboding that Chennaiites viewed the arrival of Nada, which had been predicted for the same December 1 we had learnt to fear from the previous year.
Even before he or she – someone in the Middle East named the storm - proved to be a damp squib, some of us were flummoxed by the choice of name for this particular storm. Had this anything to do with the Spanish because their ‘Nada’ is the same as the Russian ‘Nyet’ or the Hindi ‘Nahi’? Well, the whole monsoon season has been like that – more filled with hope than favourable rainfall data. And even as Nada hit land and went further down to at least bring some rainfall to the Nilgiris came the news that another system – which will be named Vardah if indeed it gathers pace — was forming in the Bay. Hope was born again as if in some inexplicably magical moment of epiphany.
Is optimism de rigueur for being a weatherman? It would appear so considering how every time a monsoon is coming up, the Met men get together in one voice to say ‘normal monsoon’. They might disappoint the public or raise fears if they so much as predict sub-normal rainfall. They are filling everyone with hope, most of all with the farmers. They did so for the South West, only to be beaten by reality as the data came in to suggest that the region where it should have rained so the Cauvery would be filled came up short by at least 33%. Hardly had that passed when the prediction came that the North East would be normal. Maybe, the very term ‘normal’ should be re-examined.
The very basis of predictions of a normal monsoon must be questioned. How could an La Nina year host a normal North East monsoon when we know that the El Nino year previously had led to a deluge that shook the very foundations of the city and implanted a fear akin to that of the tsunami of 2004 in some people? See the contrast — on December 1, 2015 the city received 37.4 cms in a day and about 50 cms in a 36-hour period from November 30 to December 2 while on the promised day of December 1 in 2016, the rainfall was scanty and under 1 cm. The 2-day rainfall was recorded in the city at under 4.1 cms and at the airport at under 4.5 cms.
The failure of Nada coming on top of the least wet Chennai November in the last 150 years or so was a kind of double whammy. What the weather forecasters could not factor in was the impact of climate change. Their forecasts based on parameters and study of the movement of systems and storms may have been foxed by the overall impact of climate change, which alone could have led to two such diverse years as 2015 and 2016, apart, of course, from the sharp division in Pacific water temperatures that lead to the contrasting phenomena of El Nino and La Nina. The same climate change may have also been responsible for the extreme wet weather of 2015 as it was for the dry 2016. The eminent agricultural scientist Dr MS Swaminathan backed this theory.
It is remarkable then that we should know so little and do even less towards water conservation. Singapore could be a model for Chennai since it has the same tropical climate and a very similar pattern and quantum of annual rainfall. The island has no substantial fresh water resource to serve the population and has been buying water from Malaysia for years. Where their mastering of conservation came in was in using recycled water for almost every purpose. While we may feel squeamish about drinking such water — which officials do to show you how perfect the cleaning process is — it at least proves that man has to be very innovative if he is to survive in a world of finite resources and infinite greed of man, who squanders natural resources.
Extreme innovation will be called for next summer in Chennai as it is bound to be water starved. Water tankers — we have a fair idea who owns them — running amok will be the new normal. Water harvesting was a great idea when it was presented to the city years ago, but it has not taken off as it should have. We are staring at privation in water shortage next summer. If you hear forecasts of heavy rain from now to Pongal, please disregard them as hype and hoopla. Such predictions will probably qualify as ‘feel good’ optimism so necessary for life on this planet.
