Visakhapatnam: Private weather website, Skymet, has predicted that the upcoming monsoon would be normal.
In its preliminary monsoon forecast report for 2024, Skymet said this could be one of the decent normal monsoon years, making a sturdy start and finishing around the midway mark of the normal range.
The range of normal rainfall is 96-104 per cent of LPA (868.6 mm).
“A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event has just ended. This breakup is followed by a neutral Dipole Mode Index in the Indian Ocean. Fresh IOD events are typically unable to form till April. The forthcoming IOD event may as well be ‘positive neutral’. It means that the IOD may render formative support to the southwest monsoon or at best, will not corrupt the season’s rainfall.”
According to Jatin Singh, MD of Skymet, “The monsoon disrupting weather pattern El Nino, which dragged Monsoon 2023 to ‘below normal’, is expected to get softened. The impending cooling of the ocean waters may portend ‘neutral’ conditions before the arrival of the monsoon.’’
Also, the monsoon supporting La Nina, triggered by the cooling of the Pacific Ocean, is likely to evolve during the latter half of the season.
Return of El Nino Positive Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral to start with and the imminent La Nina later may presage a competent monsoon 2024.
The report added that an El Nino forecast was available for the next nine months. However, model accuracy for the lead times greater than four months is generally low at this time.
ENSO predictability suffers during the upcoming ‘spring barrier’ and at times leads to an unstable ENSO regime. This will be factored in Skymet’s comprehensive April monsoon forecast, the report said.
