Chief Minister Siddaramaiah’s strategy to stand, literally, from two seats, and simultaneously bring the state home for his Congress party, beggars disbelief. It's a balancing act that this master juggler must pull off! Can he, is the question.
Not only does he have to ensure a thumping win in Varuna for his son Yatindra, the political babe in the woods – anything less than a huge margin will be a major embarrassment - he now has to hold on to his newly reclaimed old seat of Chamundeshwari with both hands. A seat, that he won by a mere 257 votes, twelve long years ago. A seat, that he abandoned and has not really nurtured or nourished since he shifted focus to Varuna. A seat, that this time, he simply cannot win by 257 votes!
Why does he imagine he can now win Chamundeswari AND Varuna AND the 113+ seats he needs to bring the Congress home?
Some say, even the Congress high command is unsure whether he should take on all of this as well as the two seats that no one believes are the safest! But it's easy to see where Mr Siddaramaiah’s confidence stems from. Varuna and Chamundeshwari are extensions of one another, the one was carved out from the other, and if there's anyone who has an understanding of which vote block to tap in these twin constituencues, it has to be this son of the soil. He claims he knows every single inhabitant of the two hundred-odd villages and towns that are spread across the area, be it friend or foe. Exuding confidence, he said he knows his core Kuruba-Ahinda-Minorities vote is largely intact, except that the Dalits are divided, the Brahmins not his to count on, that the vast majority of Vokkaligas are angry, that if he gets even a smattering of Lingayat votes he will be lucky. And this is true, not just here in his own stomping ground but right across the state.
The buzz in Mysuru? Siddaramaiah has already won over his former friend turned arch rival turned frenemy, the JD(S) candidate and sitting legislator G.T. Deve Gowda, and that the twin constituencies realise this is probably his last hurrah and may want to be part of it all and make history!
A clutch of JD(S) rebels are now part of the Congress, and rumour has it that every JD(S) member who comes knocking on the CM’s door, manned by his cronies, comes away with a smile on his face. The CM too has the ultimate ace - he is privy to the inner workings of the JD(S) and may be one step ahead of anything they throw at him.
But that’s where the strategy for the home constituencies should end and the strategy to win the state must begin. Or it could all unravel.
At the heart of Siddaramaiah’s poll strategy is to break down and win over the enemy. He knows, if anyone does, how to play dirty. His rural lexicon and his aggression may put off city slickers, but in the villages, he scores, he speaks their language. Except, this time Siddaramaiah has two very powerful political formations who are pulling out all the stops to ensure he doesn’t win either of these two seats or the rest of the state.
The BJP’s poll machines have at least 15 legislators in their crosshairs, insiders claim. No one’s jumped ship yet. Not Layout Krishnappa or his son Priya Krishna or Pramod Madhvaraj, their long running feud with rivals within the Congress, notwithstanding. Or even Shamanur Shivashankarappa over the Lingayat issue.
There are others being wooed to cross over, or face the music for being caught with their hands in the till. But unlike Assam, the north-east and the hill state of Himachal, there have been no dramatic cross-overs. The strengths and weaknesses of the CM’s top aides are being minutely examined, particularly K.J. George and M.B. Patil and D.K. Shivakumar, the party strongmen whom the BJP wants to see self-destruct. So far, there’s no Achilles heel?
Insiders admit that the BJP’s inability to bring all its leaders to the table to sit down and pick candidates is holding potential candidates back from campaigning in their respective constituencies where the onus is on Modi-Shah to campaign and bring in the vote - unlike the Congress where Siddu and not Rahul is the main face of the party.
Siddu’s animus against the Janata Dal(S) has descended to a whole new level of acrimony and name-calling that must impact any future post-poll link up, although that too could be just temporary. It's telling how sworn enemies mend fences in a post-poll power grab.
Clearly, it's with BJP president Amit Shah that everything will go down to the wire. Mr. Shah may not fully understand the niceties of the south – he freely admits he has much to learn – cracking the Karnataka code may not be all that easy. He’s given the Lingayats what they want by finally announcing that B.S. Yeddyurappa is their chief ministerial candidate, even though visiting the Mysuru royals and prostrating himself before every Math and pleading for their support hasn’t won him the kind of rock solid assurances he is looking for.
The BJP still has a Modi. Most poll pundits will trot out the line that PM Modi is losing traction and that his image has been dented. But as luck would have it, stuck in a mid-week traffic jam, my taxi driver spewed venom not at the PM but at Siddaramaiah for dividing the Lingayats and Veerashaivas and praised Prime Narendra Modi for his strong Hindutva credentials. That Modi has street cred and Siddu doesn’t is an eye-opener.
Congress insiders also say that Siddu isn’t short of enemies within the Congress party either, who won't stop short of ensuring he doesn’t win a re-election.
Especially those whose electoral prospects he destroyed in 2013. If he does win again, he would become simply unstoppable! Any number of chief ministerial hopefuls can kiss their ambitions to replace him, goodbye.
While that’s a worry, he does have one card that a little birdie tells me, he’s never tweeted about – the Suttur Swamiji. Word is, that the seer and the CM go back many years and Rahul Gandhi visiting him or not is not really an issue. The silence of the Suttur swamiji, very telling indeed! Truth? Or just more Fake News in this season of mind games?
