New Delhi: With the Election Commission announcing the schedule for the Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Telangana and Mizoram Assembly polls on Monday, the country will witness the first major electoral battle between the ruling BJP-led NDA and the recently-formed 26-party INDIA bloc ahead of the general election next year.
With the Narendra Modi-led NDA sounding confident of a hat-trick in 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the INDIA bloc has been playing up the caste census card and renewal of the old pension scheme in the run-up to the 2024 election and is hoping that these two will also help the Congress to retain power in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, and ousting the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, which the Congress had won in 2018 but lost after 15 months as it faced a rebellion.
In BRS-ruled Telangana, both the BJP and the Congress are vying to come to power, while in Mizoram, where Mizo National Front (MNF) and the Congress have been winning alternately, the BJP’s efforts to become a factor faces a severe jolt due to the Manipur crisis.
After wresting Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka from the BJP, the Congress is in an upbeat mood to challenge the Narendra Modi-led party in the coming Assembly polls, which many within the INDIA bloc claim will impact the Lok Sabha elections. However, the Congress’ 2018 performance in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Karnataka, which it won, made no impact on the Narendra Modi-led NDA which retained power in 2019.
After the poll schedule was announced, BJP president J.P. Nadda claimed his party will form the government in all the states with a big majority under Mr Modi’s leadership. “The BJP will form the government in all states with a big majority under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership and will work with commitment to fulfil people’s aspirations in the next five years,” he wrote on X.
Addressing party leaders at a key meeting of the Congress Working Committee, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge called for unity and discipline ahead of the polls. “As we approach the coming Assembly polls and the general election, it is important that the party works with meticulous coordination and complete discipline and unity,” he said at the CWC meeting.
While Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be the poll mascot and also the “star campaigner” of the BJP in all five states, in the three northern states -- Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan -- the BJP leadership is keeping clear of the chief ministerial candidate issue due to factionalism.
While BJP leaders sound confidant of winning in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, in Chhattisgarh they are hoping to turn the tide in its favour banking on “anti-incumbency and corruption” under Bhupesh Baghel-led government.
In Rajasthan, where the ruling Congress has been in the news over the rift between chief minister Ashok Gehlot and his one-time deputy Sachin Pilot, voters have been bringing the Congress and the BJP to power alternately. Crimes against women, the deteriorating law and order situation, appeasement, communal violence and anti-incumbency are some of issues the BJP is highlighting in its campaigns, but it is also in the news over factionalism in its state unit.
In Madhya Pradesh, where the BJP leadership was troubled by anti-incumbency, among other factors, the strategy to field some MPs, including Union ministers, and bombardment of sops, mainly to woo women and youth, has shown “positive results”, as per the party’s fresh feedback. The party repeated its strategy of fielding MPs in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.
In three of the five poll-going states, the BJP and the Congress will be engaged in a direct fight in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, while the two parties are also in contention for power in Telangana, where chief minister K. Chandrashekar Rao’s Bharat Rashtra Samithi is eyeing a third straight term. In Mizoram, the regional parties and the Congress will challenge the incumbent Mizo National Front amid the Opposition party’s hope that political polarisation on ethnic lines after the violence in Manipur may boost its electoral chances.
