Pundits see Karnataka verdict critical for Congress, BJP national plan
NEW DELHI: With the crucial elections to the Karnataka Assembly behind them, poll pundits say the results will likely be an indicator of voters’ sentiment ahead of the 2024 general elections and also influence the outcome of the impending Assembly elections later this year.
The results will also be an indication of the preferences of dominant vote banks including Lingayats, Vokkaliga, dalits and the OBCs.
In the triangular contest between the BJP, the JD(S) and the Congress, most exit polls gave the latter an edge.
In 2018, the BJP bagged the largest number of seats but lacked a simple majority, with the Congress and the JD(S) joining hands to form a government that lasted only for 14 months.
Winning the state is crucial for both the Congress and the BJP, as the result will likely impact their performance in the coming Assembly polls, including in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana. For the Congress, the verdict in its national president Mallikarjun Kharge’s home state will also have an impact on its electoral and political performance in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls. After a long time, Karnataka witnessed the entire Gandhi clan -- Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra -- campaigning aggressively, seeking support for the party. Winning Karnataka will mark its revival for the 2024 elections.
The JD(S), on the other hand, is trying to remain politically relevant by securing enough seats to play a key role in government formation like it did in 2018.
For the BJP, Karnataka remains the "gateway to the south" and a victory will not only put the electoral graph soaring for the party but will once again prove that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has the capacity to swing elections single-handedly.
The BJP leadership has been maintaining that the incumbent party will retain power despite anti-incumbency and corruption allegations by the Opposition. Reiterating his party’s stand, Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai, who is seeking re-election from Shiggaon in Haveri district for a fourth consecutive term, said he will win with a record margin. "So will the BJP," he added, "which is going to win with a record number of seats."
Bommai said the party will get a "comfortable majority". The entire BJP leadership, including its "star campaigner" Prime Minister Narendra Modi, sought votes for the "double engine sarkar".
Attracting sizable Vokkaliga votes despite a decline in its vote share in successive polls in the state, JD(S) leader H.D. Kumaraswamy said that his party is expected to take a "hit" in up to 25 Assembly segments due to a financial crunch, where it had chances of winning.
In a tweet message at the end of the polling, Mr Gandhi thanked the leaders and workers of the party for running a "dignified and solid people-oriented campaign" for the Assembly elections in Karnataka. Describing them as "babbar sher" (lions), the former Congress president also thanked people who came out to vote for a "progressive future".
“I want to thank the 'Babbar Sher' workers and leaders of Congress for a well-run, dignified and solid people-oriented campaign. Thank you to the people of Karnataka for coming out in large numbers to vote for a progressive future,” Mr Gandhi tweeted at the end of the polling.
In the outgoing Assembly, the ruling BJP has 116 MLAs, followed by the Congress with 69, the JD(S) with 29, the BSP with one, independents with two, the Speaker and six vacant seats (following deaths and resignations to join other parties ahead of the polls). In 2018, the BJP had won 104 seats, the Congress 80 and the JD(S) had won 37 out of the total 224 seats. Later, 17 legislators from the ruling alliance defected to the BJP and facilitated the party's return to power.
In the bypolls held subsequently in 2019, the ruling party won 12 out of 15 seats.
Earlier in the day, the Prime Minister urged the people of Karnataka to vote in large numbers and enrich the "festival of democracy". Mr Gandhi too appealed to the people of Karnataka to vote in large numbers to build a progressive and "40 per cent commission-free" state.
During the polling, violence was reported in some areas. Villagers of Masabinal in Vijayapura district stopped a poll duty vehicle carrying electronic voting machines (EVMs), manhandled an officer and damaged some control and ballot units on Wednesday, following which 23 persons were arrested, the Election Commission said.
In a statement, the EC said that the villagers stopped a sector officer's vehicle, which was carrying reserved EVMs and damaged two control and ballot units each and three VVPAT (Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trail) machines.
"A sector officer was manhandled; 23 people were arrested," the EC said, adding that top district officials rushed to the village, which comes under the Basavana Bagewadi Assembly segment.
Police sources said the villagers' "action" came after "rumours" that officials were "changing" the EVMs and VVPATs.
