NEW DELHI: The BJP’s unsparing efforts to retain its foothold in South India came to a crashing halt on Saturday, as the Congress virtually decimated the saffron forces in a hard-fought battle in Karnataka. Of the 224 Assembly berths, the Congress finally won in 137 constituencies while the BJP got only 65 seats, around 40 seats less than in the previous election. The JD(S)’ plan to be the joker in the pack completely failed, and the party could not touch even 20 seats.
It won only 19. The saffron party’s Hindutva bouquet featuring the issues of hijab, halal and Tipu Sultan were decisively rejected, with voters focusing on issues ranging from corruption to infrastructure. Top Congress leaders will reach Karnataka on Sunday to decide who should be the new chief minister. Two Congress heavyweights are the leading contenders for the CM’s post PCC chief D.K. Shivakumar and former chief minister Siddaramaiah.
The Congress' stupendous victory after promising to ban the Bajrang Dal and risking a consolidation of Hindu votes in the BJP's favour was seen as a major signal against the politics of polarisation. Trinamul Congress MP Mahua Moitra tweeted: “Thank you Karnataka. For choosing LPG over Bajrangbali ji.” The call to ban the Bajrang Dal is believed to have prevented the split of Muslim votes between the JD(S) and the Congress. Sources revealed an overwhelming majority of the 13 per cent Muslim population in the state consolidated in favour of the Congress. With Karnataka slipping out of the BJP’s hands, the saffron party now finds itself completely ousted from the southern India. The Karnataka polls saw a record turnout of 73.19 per cent.
The saffron rout was so severe that over 62 of the 72 new faces put up by the BJP, and nearly 10 state ministers, bit the dust. Even the mighty saffron charge led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and a host of top BJP ministers and chief ministers failed to counter the prevailing anti-incumbency factor. With its 137 seats, the Congress got 57 seats more than it did in 2018, while the BJP lost nearly 40 Assembly berths.
This is a major electoral victory for the Congress after 2018, when it had won Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Also, Karnataka is the second state after Himachal to fall into the Congress’ kitty in the last six months.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated the Congress for its win in the Karnataka Assembly polls and wished the party all the best in its endeavour to fulfil the people’s aspirations. He also tweeted: “I thank all those who have supported us in the Karnataka elections. I appreciate the hard work of BJP karyakartas. We shall serve Karnataka with even more vigour in the times to come.”
Speaking after the Karnataka victory, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi said: “I am happy we contested the Karnataka polls without using hate, bad language. We fought the polls with love.”
This particular election also saw the entire Gandhi clan -- Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and Sonia Gandhi -- campaigning aggressively. The Congress victory may not only revive the party but also gave a fillip to the Opposition with several leaders, including from the JD(U), CPM, TMC and PDP, hailing it.
After its electoral humiliation, the knives are out within the BJP. Some angry local BJP leaders blamed one of the national general secretaries and accused him of “continuously undermining the state leadership”. He was also blamed for removing the party’s tallest Lingayat leader, B.S. Yediyurappa, and for “poor and biased ticket distribution”. Some of these leaders rejoiced as the “protégé” of this particular national general secretary, C.T. Ravi, lost from Chikmagalur constituency. The outgoing CM, Basavaraj Bommai, conceding defeat, said the party “will analyse the results”.
Incidentally, the BJP’s vote share also slipped from 36.22 in the last Assembly election to 35.7 per cent, according to Election Commission of India trends. The Congress’ vote share has gone up from 38.04 per cent to a possible 43 per cent. The worst-hit was the JD(S), as the party’s vote share came down from 18.36 per cent to 13.3 per cent. This may possibly be the biggest vote share by any winning party in the last 34 years. In 1989, the Congress led by Veerendra Patil had secured 43.76 per cent of the vote share.
While the Karnataka results might not serve as an indicator to the 2024 general election, it could have an impact on the forthcoming Assembly polls in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, to be held by the end of the year. While the Congress is believed to be on a stronger wicket in Bhupesh Bhagel-led Chhattisgarh, the electoral battle in both Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan could be “close and intense”, sources said.
Despite the BJP’s all-out attempt to retain the state, the party’s electoral arithmetic went completely haywire. The BJP’s desperate attempts to consolidate the Lingayat vote bank did not pay off. The Congress made deep inroads into the Lingayat vote bank, a key support base of the BJP. The BJP also boasts of powerful Lingayat leaders like B.S. Yediyurappa and Basavaraj Bommai, among others. Comprising 17 per cent of the state’s population, Lingayats dominate at least 78 constituencies.
For the state unit leaders, the BJP central leadership, particularly the “powerful general secretary”, made the first blunder by going after Mr Yediyurappa and replacing him. This had upset a majority of Lingayats, a senior party functionary claimed. The state functionaries also noted that denying a ticket to Lingayat leader Jagadish Shettar also hurt the party. Even though Mr Shettar lost as a Congress candidate, the contention that a heavyweight Lingayat leader was “humiliated” by the BJP apparently “found traction”.
The Congress also made forays in the Vokkaliga-dominated Old Mysuru region. Of 64 Assembly berths in the region, the Congress was leading in at least 35 seats. The Congress’ performance in both the Lingayat and Vokkaliga-dominated belts stunned the BJP. With Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge camping in the state, there was a massive Dalit consolidation in favour of the party. As BJP fumbled, the Congress cut across caste and community. Except coastal Karnataka, where the BJP held its own, the Congress wiped away all opposition from Old Mysuru, Central Karnataka, Hyderabad Karnataka and Mumbai Karnataka. The Congress also made huge inroads into the BJP’s urban vote bank. In a head-on-head contest 65 per cent of Congress candidates trounced the BJP.
The BJP’s campaign, which was more national than local, focusing mainly on the “double-engine sarkar”, the “Centre’s welfare schemes”, and “muscular Hindutva” failed to cut ice with Karnataka voters. The BJP’s “Bajrangbali” pitch found no takers. The Congress’ rainbow caste calculus also proved more than a match for the BJP’s much flaunted “social engineering”.
