Hyderabad: Besides the moral boost the Karnataka verdict has provided to the Congress in Telangana state, it also gave specific leads, one among them being the consolidation of the minority vote towards a party that minorities firmly believe was an uncompromising force against the Bharatiya Janata Party.
As all the pre and post-poll surveys indicated, propagating and cashing in on anti-incumbency is another crucial factor that contributed to unseating the Bommai-led BJP government by the Congress.
In the recently-held polls in the neighbouring state, not only did the two Muslim-centric parties — All India Majlis Ittehadul Muslimeen and Social Democratic Party of India — got a drubbing but also the Janata Dal (S), whose seat share was reduced by half as Muslim voters decided to junk it for the Congress, despite its low-decibel ‘Jai Hanuman’ chants.
With a 12.5 per cent share in the Telangana state electorate, Muslims, the majority of whom have been sailing with the Bharat Rashtra Samithi till now, would play a crucial role in the formation of the next government — winning them back makes a lot of difference to Congress.
“It is increasingly evident from elections in different states that the split in minority vote has stopped and there is consolidation of the vote behind a party that will take on BJP,” said Congress Legislature Party floor leader Mallu Bhatti Vikramarka.
Speaking to Deccan Chronicle, he said in Telangana, Muslims had to choose between the Congress and the BRS, which, contrary to its public posture, has a tacit understanding with the BJP. “No surprise if they openly join hands in the post-poll scenario in the event of a hung Assembly or in the run-up to Lok Sabha polls,” he said, adding that it is Congress alone that wages a relentless and uncompromising political battle with communal forces.
According to an estimate, of the total Muslim voters in the state, nearly 40 per cent live in 24 Assembly constituencies falling in the Greater Hyderabad limits and the rest in another 16 segments across Telangana. Within the GHMC limits, 60 per cent and 25 per cent of voters are in Hyderabad and Secunderabad Lok Sabha constituencies, respectively.
The MIM is a formidable force only in pockets of GHMC limits, winning seven Assembly seats, leaving 17 seats for BRS and Congress to test their strength among the Muslim electorate.
“I see no reason why MIM or Muslims fight electorally against the BRS unless Chief Minister K. Chandrashekar Rao takes a complete U-turn in his fight against the BJP,” said a top Majlis leader.
The AIMIM, it seems, is also in no mood to take its contest beyond the seven segments which it won in 2018 despite pressure from the party cadre in other parts of Telangana, with an intention to not upset “friend KCR” that eventually would help the arch-rival BJP. It is also of the view that unlike in Karnataka, the Congress here is unsure of its win even if Muslims rally behind it.
While pro-BRS sections were of the view that K. Chandrashekar Rao’s welfare initiatives, in particular ‘Shaadi Mubarak’, the financial assistance to Muslim brides, and old-age pensions will ensure continuity, the ground situation is different.
“Of the Rs 120 crore financial assistance promised by K. Chandrashekar Rao, not a penny reached one-lakh-odd beneficiaries who applied to Minorities Finance Corporation,” pointed out veteran Urdu journalist Majid.
Students, who went abroad anticipating overseas scholarships, have been facing extreme difficulties as the government did not release funds. Even the ‘Shaadi Mubarak’ assistance is given almost a year after marriage, he said, adding that chances of a shift in Muslim voters’ preference cannot be ruled out.
