THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The LDF’s newspaper ad blitz on polling day, urging voters to press the right key on the EVM to weed out the corrupt, was spot on, as the popular perception of governance corruption, along with a growing fear of the emergence of rightwing forces, has led to the rout of the Chandy Government.
But an overriding fear of the BJP-BDJS capturing the Opposition space, possibly relegating the Left, helped the latter garner the minority vote.
In pockets of Malappuram, Muslims stuck with the League, giving it 18 seats as against 20 last time. Elsewhere, Muslims preferred the Left, in a trend
that had started with the civic polls, as a better alternative to the Congress to protect their interests.
In Ernakulam and Kottayam, Christians also behaved like a bloc, as proved by the re-election of the bargate-tainted Mr K M Mani. The BJP-BDJS factor which ensured the victory of Mr O Rajagopal in Nemom and second place for the combine in seven other constituencies, triggered a counter accretion on the part of the forward communities especially Nairs.
The Ezhava factor was perceived to be turning hegemonic. Even the Congress which adopted a soft approach to the combine might rethink lest the divisive politics undermine its own survival. The future of BJP-BDJS, for now, looks bleak because the combine has not been able to make major gains despite the unprecedented campaign led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
A perception had gained ground that Chief Minister Oommen Chandy has been soft towards the saffron party and his reference to BJP being the principal opponent “in some places” during electioneering in Kuttanad was seen to be a follow-up of his Aruvikkara by-election warning that BJP will emerge as the runner-up. This plus the talk of tacit alliance with BDJS in select constituencies have proved to be Mr Chandy's undoing.
He had expected the kickoff of mega projects, the distribution of goodies such as Rs 1,200 crore to 1.4 lakh people as medical assistance, expansion of the welfare dole-out coverage from 9 lakh to 34 lakh beneficiaries and his mass contact programme to translate into goodwill votes.
It would have worked in centralised, personality cult-based politics, where the entire credit for any success belongs to the leader. But in Kerala’s decentralized setup, the credit for governance scatters to legislators and local body leaders. Voters here believe politicians have been voted to power to ensure people’s welfare. This is why they vote out the incumbent at the end of the term, for not rising up to their expectations.
The Chandy dispensation had scored on the welfare front but all the good was drowned in perceived corruption. This has been endorsed in a yet-to-be released Centre for the Study of Development Societies survey in Kerala.
“75 percent respondents said they detested governance corruption the most. An extra 2 percent said the previous VS government was less corrupt”, associate professor Sajad Ibrahim of the Kerala University Department of Political Science, who was part of the study, told DC. The people also believe that the tradition of alternating governance is beneficial for the State’s development.
The comatose PDS and the majority perception of the Government being oversensitive to minority interests, especially Mr Chandy’s failure to keep minority parties in check, contributed to the slide. Acute water shortage at the height of summer as the polls drew near and the police failure to nab killer/s of Dalit victim Jisha in Perumbavur, raising fresh questions on the safety of women, were the last straw on the camel’s back. Voters also made light of Oommen Chandy's phased prohibition lollipop.
