New Delhi: The timing of the information and broadcasting ministry’s move to launch a talk show —Zara Muskara Do — to mark two years in power for the Modi government on May 26 could not have been better. The BJP is back to where it belonged. At the top. And for BJP president Amit Shah, who suffered humiliating electoral drubbings in the Delhi and Bihar Assembly polls, the “achche din” are back.
Read: Mamata, Jaya win big, BJP goes pan-India, Congress loses plot
The BJP not only created history by coming to power in Congress-ruled Assam, the party also opened its account in Kerala and made inroads into Marxist and Trinamul Congress-dominated West Bengal. The trend indicates that the saffron influence is now expanding beyond northern and western India and could lead to the party’s long-cherished dream of a “Congress-mukt Bharat”. Geographically, the BJP has expanded from Gujarat to Assam, has a presence in Jammu and Kashmir and has established its presence in Bengal and Kerala. On the other front, two formidable women in Indian politics, J. Jayalalithaa and Mamata Banerjee, stormed back to power in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, respectively.
Read: Why Amma remains Tamil Nadu’s favourite
Routed in Assam and Kerala, the Congress was yet again faced with an existential crisis. The party, which was in power in 11 states in 2014, is now in power in only six states and one Union Territory — Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, the three Northeast states of Mizoram, Meghalaya and Manipur, and Puducherry. A report indicated that “put together, these states account for only seven per cent of the country’s population.”
A section in the Congress claimed that party vice-president Rahul Gandhi has “failed to deliver yet again”. The party, however, rejected suggestions that Mr Gandhi should accept blame for the party’s debacle in five states. Making a jibe at the Congress, BJP president Amit Shah said: “The country has taken two more steps towards Congress- mukt Bharat.”
Read: Karunanidhi impacted Tamil Nadu's political narrative for decades
Putting up a brave front, Congress president Sonia Gandhi said the party would “introspect into the reasons for our loss and will rededicate ourselves to service of the people with greater vigour”.
Bucking the trend, defeating anti-incumbency and tearing exit poll predictions to shreds, AIADMK supremo J. Jayalalithaa created history by returning to power for a second successive term, a feat accomplished in her state only by her “political guru”, MGR, in 1984.
Read: AIADMK wins closely fought contest with DMK; Jaya wave drowns ‘Third Front’
Despite the Saradha and Narada scams, Trinamul supremo Mamata Banerjee strengthened her grip over West Bengal by decimating the much-hyped Left-Congress alliance and bettering her performance in the 2011 Assembly polls.
For the Left, led by CPI(M) general secretary Sitaram Yechury, the election threw up a mixed bag. The CPI(M)-led LDF scored a major victory in Kerala, opened its account in Puducherry after 40 years and lost miserably in West Bengal. Slipping down the electoral ladder with every election, the Bengal Marxists and Communists are in a “mood for introspection”.
Read: With 1 seat, BJP opens account in Kerala
Of the 126 seats in Assam, the BJP won 60 seats and the Congress 26. In 232 seats out of the 234 seats in Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK had won 131 seats and was leading in three at the time of going to press and the DMK had won 86 and was leading in three.
Bettering its performance in West Bengal with 294 Assembly berths, Trinamul Congress won 211 seats and the Left and Congress 76. In Kerala the Left-led LDF was ahead with 92 seats and the Congress-led UDF lagging far behind with only 46 seats. Of the 30 Assembly berths in Puducherry, the Congress-DMK is all set to form government with 17 seats. In West Bengal the BJP, in alliance with the Gorkha Jan Morcha, won six seats. Both the BJP and GJN won three each.
Read: Assembly polls 2016: Green landslide in West Bengal
For the BJP, the Assam victory was crucial for the outfit to regain its political momentum and prepare for its biggest electoral battle: Uttar Pradesh in 2017. Learning from its mistakes in Delhi and Bihar, saffron strategists in Assam quickly made some course-corrections. They did not bank on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s charisma for an electoral victory and instead projected a “popular face” as CM candidate and got the alliance arithmetic (with AGP and BPF) right. The Assam victory will now open the gates for the BJP to enter deep into the Northeast, which has traditionally been a Congress stronghold.
Regardless of the morale-boosting electoral triumph, what’s worrying the BJP at this juncture is that election results over the past one year indicate that the main threat is not from the Congress but from the rising power of the regional satraps. So far the BJP has scored only in the states where the Congress was in power for nearly two decades or more.
But the party has failed to make any dent in states lorded over by regional players like Nitish Kumar in Bihar, Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi, Mamata Banerjee in Bengal, Biju Patnaik in Orissa and Ms Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu.
Read: Mother of all victories: Jaya first CM to win successive polls in Tamil Nadu
Next in line are Punjab and UP, states dominated by regional players. Though the Congress has been a major player in Punjab, the AAP is witnessing a meteoric rise. Trinamul supremo Mamata Banerjee and Nitish Kumar have begun talking about a federal front for the 2019 general election. Much weakened by successive defeats, the Congress is expected to join the front and transfer its votes to the combination. Though the BJP has managed to leave its mark in Bengal and Kerala, the party still has a long way to go.
The BJP now intends to borrow the Assam template of promoting local leadership to consolidate its position in these two states.
The BJP not only created history by coming to power in Congress-ruled Assam, the party also opened its account in Kerala and made inroads into Marxist and the Trinamul-dominated West Bengal. The trend indicates that the saffron influence is now expanding beyond northern and western India and could lead to the party’s long-cherished dream of a “Congress-mukt Bharat”.
Read: Assam is beginning in northeast for BJP: Sarbananda Sonowal
Geographically, the BJP has expanded from Gujarat to Assam, has a presence in the Jammu and Kashmir government and has established its presence in Bengal and Kerala. On the other front, two formidable women in Indian politics, Ms J. Jayalalithaa and Ms Mamata Banerjee, stormed back to power in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, respectively.
The Congress, which was in power in 11 states in 2014, is now in power in only six states and one Union Territory — Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Mizoram, Meghalaya and Manipur, and now in Puducherry (UT).
