Chennai: As we inch forward to the May 16 polls to the Tamil Nadu Assembly, possibly the widest broadband elections the State is witnessing in recent years with five or six-cornered contests, its logical features seem clearer than the power stakes that key players have raised.
The underlying features may be broadly termed as, ‘counterfactuals, variables, imponderables and the constants’ that define the 2016 general election in Tamil Nadu, within the larger Indian context.
With several Chief Ministerial (CM) claimants seen for the first time in the state, a recourse to what modern logicians call the ‘counterfactual conditional (CF)’ looks apt. Simply put, a CF is an “if-clause, which is contrary to fact”, somewhat like in the famous example ‘had Cleopatra’s nose been shorter then history would have been different’. It was the very remarkable post-war American thinker Nelson Goodman who coined the term ‘counterfactual’ in 1947.
Aside from it coinciding with the year of Indian Independence, the CFs’ in the Tamil Nadu scene have unfolded in at least two ways: “Anyone can join us if you accept me as the CM candidate”, as the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) put it in projecting Dr Anbumani Ramadoss, or “I can join you if you accept me as the CM candidate,” as was the refrain of the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) leader, Vijayakanth.
While these are legitimate political aspirations in a democracy, posing them openly in ‘counterfactual’ terms shaped the state alliances as well.
Though PMK, DMDK and the Vaiko-led MDMK were very much part of the BJP-led NDA in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP now rejected both ‘if-then propositions’, leaving the saffron party to go it alone in at least 165 of the 234 Assembly seats at stake. The BJP’s minor ally, Indiya Jananayaka Katchi (IJK) has been given 45 seats.
Interestingly, the ‘counterfactual’ poser by the PMK had no takers. But the People’s Welfare Alliance (PWA)’, initially comprising the MDMK-Left parties-Viduthalai Chiruthaikal Katchi (VCK) led by Dalit leader Thol Thirumavalavan, went on to expand their poll alliance by accepting DMDK’s Vijayakanth as their leader and Vaiko content to play deputy. They also took on board, the breakaway Congress faction, the G.K.Vasan-led Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC). These realignments led to minor splits both in DMDK and in the TMC.
Thanks to persisting sibling rivalry within the DMK, between M K Alagiri and M K Stalin, the elder and younger sons of the party patriarch M Karunanidhi, the party has prudently ducked the ‘counterfactuals’ and played it safe to let their 92-year-old indefatigable leader run for the Chief Ministership for a sixth time.
Declining to play another ‘counterfactual’, the Congress settled for 41 seats in the DMK-led alliance this time, slashed by a third of the 63 seats it contested in the 2011 polls when it implicitly pressed for power-sharing with an embattled DMK. The AIADMK has been far from such dilemmas, since Ms Jayalalithaa’s resounding wins in the 2011 Assembly and 2014 LS polls, discounting even the Modi wave.
However, the power-play of ‘counterfactuals’ has been in no political vacuum. In fact, the 2011 Assembly election results holds the key to why so many smaller regional parties are flexing their political muscles much more this time.
For instance, the PMK, as part of the DMK-led front then, which also included the Congress, VCK and a Kongu outfit, performed miserably in its own OBC Vanniyars-dominated heartland in North-Northwest Tamil Nadu. Including in seats like Myilam and Tindivanam, the AIADMK beat the PMK with huge margins. Even in reserved seats, the VCK drew a blank, showing more Dalits voted for AIADMK.
Another revealing feature of the 2011 Assembly polls was that even where the DMDK won, as part of the AIADMK-led alliance, barring a few like Rishivandiyam from where Vijayakanth won, the victory margins were slim. It showed his film fans impact and the actor’s own motive force have been waning. The 2011 Assembly and 2014 Lok Sabha polls results show that votes did not effectively transfer in favour of DMDK despite being part of strong alliances, the AIADMK and NDA respectively.
These ground realities largely explain the PMK’s bid to aggressively re-consolidate its socio-political base in the state by projecting Dr Anbumani Ramadoss as its CM candidate, as it does for Vijayakanth seeking comfort in the driver’s seat in an omnibus alliance now. The VCK’s predicament to regain its Dalits base is no different. The MDMK had boycotted the 2011 Assembly elections itself.
Further, with Election Commission’s stipulation that registered unrecognised parties should contest at least 10 per cent of the total seats to get a ‘common symbol’, at least 23 in Tamil Nadu’s instance, the best bet for the smaller parties was to float an alliance of their own, as established parties seek to protect their turf. The seats-sharing pattern in the PWA-DMDK-TMC alliance now – DMDK-104 seats, MDMK-29, TMC-26, VCK-25, CPI-25 AND CPI (M)-25-, clearly bears out this aspect, though their new chemistry is yet to be tested.
While another key variable this time is the additional about 1.07 crore voters in the poll rolls — the party manifestos are qualitative variables — first-time voters in the 18-19 years group are about three per cent of the eligible voters. And this takes us to the main imponderable: which way will these votes
swing?
In a diffused multi-cornered contest, even assuming a 30 per cent swing of the new voters to the new third front and other parties, the battle for the Tamil Nadu ballot, statistically still remains an AIADMK vs DMK scenario. The few constants in an emerging horizon are the people’s tolerance and inherent faith in the democratic system, while Tamil Nadu people have wisely not given room to divisive politics on religious lines.
