CHENNAI: In the messy pool of fractured state politics after former Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa's death last year, the much-delayed byelection to the R K Nagar Assembly constituency to fill the vacancy caused by her demise, the main opposition DMK under MK Stalin's leadership was expected to up its ante this time, to go for the jugular as it were, to make a poll point from North Chennai.
However, the byelection results on Sunday from this doted constituency, which has been in the news for all the wrong reasons since April 2017 when the bypoll was cancelled by the Election Commission in the wake of huge cash-for-vote allegations, pushing the DMK to the third slot is an ironic mix of the old and new, as sidelined AIADMK leader TTV Dhinakaran emerged trumps as an Independent.
On the face of the results, the DMK's performance seems very disappointing, considering the entire band of opposition parties including Congress, Left, VCK and the latest entrant MDMK to its fold, backing the relatively low-profile but down-to-earth DMK candidate Maruthu Ganesh. But the Dravidian major is nonchalant, completely unruffled by its show, even as re-united AIADMK candidate E Madhsudhanan, the local strongman, came second.
Political observers are baffled that the DMK, which in the 2016 general elections to the Assembly had polled an impressive 57,420 votes by its new woman candidate Ms. Shimla Muthuchozhan, taking on then Chief Ministerial candidate J Jayalalithaa who won garnering 97,037 votes, had not been able to maintain even half that tempo now. Was it sudden disinterest on the DMK's part or a tactical, silent, diversion to let Dhinakaran win, is the question being raised now.
However, DMK's senior leader and former MP, Mr. T K S Elangovan, stoutly disagrees with this reading. First, RK Nagar has been a predominantly AIADMK constituency since 1977 elections, save twice, during the general election in 1989 and 1996 when one of its former ministers, Mrs Sarguna Pandian had won, he points out. In the 2016 general elections to the Assembly, Ms. Shimla Muthuchozhan's good showing had been in line with that broader trend.
But in a byelection, Mr. Elangovan stressed the ruling dispensation's focus is always "extreme", and "they know how to get things done". And 'money power' has played a key role this time also, he says, adding, this does not worry the DMK as it was not the sort of result that would impact other constituencies in Tamil Nadu. "RK Nagar was made a pocket borough just as Andipatti was", he quipped. Moreover, Mr. Stalin had openly declared during the campaign that DMK was not in the game of luring voters with cash, implying a new transparency in its style.
Denying suggestions that there was any 'tactical shift' in the average DMK voter's preference in R K Nagar, Mr. Elangovan, nonetheless, said that Dhinakaran's victory was bound to rock the ruling AIADMK. But that would be part of the internal dynamics of the AIADMK and has nothing to do with the DMK, he emphatically said.
With the political space in Tamil Nadu just beginning to open up for the DMK and its allies after the 2G spectrum cases verdict exonerating all the accused including former Union minister A Raja and party MP, Ms. Kanimozhi, the party, which had been weighed down in the past on the issue of corruption, is now gearing up for an entirely new phase under Mr. M K Stalin's leader-ship.
Should the shake-up stemming from Dhinakaran's bypoll victory in the ruling AIADMK be far more severe now than even when it distanced itself from Ms VK Sasikala and her family recently, then it could be advantage DMK in the medium to long-term. From that viewpoint, Mr. Stalin's gambit now might be worth the risk.
