I won't be surprised if the BJP loses all 15 of the seats for which bypolls are being held in Karnataka. Three events make me feel convinced that all the 15 seats would be lost by the BJP in these round of elections- chief among these is the devastating resignation drama of Devendra Fadnavis, so precariously close to these round of elections.
Maharashtra neighbors Karnataka. The politics of one has a massive influence on the other.
In 2002, Maharashtra Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh was facing a no-confidence motion. Maharashtra MLA's were kept at Eagleton Resort on the outskirts of Bengaluru. These MLAs remained at Bengaluru for a week and only on the day of the trust vote were escorted back to Mumbai. Vilasrao Deshmukh survived the trust vote. In fact, INC-JDS MLA's. Relate these to the fact that the 17 disqualified MLAs were hosted by Devendra Fadnavis during the BJP sponsored toppling of the INC-JDS Government. The fact that Fadnavis had to resign following his failed midnight fiasco has not only delivered a body-blow to BJP's infernal opportunism, but also made the entire lot look like namby-pambies!
The second reason is that for months on end, channels have been agog with images of these 17 MLA's sometimes running, sometimes relaxing at resorts-this when Karnataka was facing its worst crisis. Excessive rainfall has wrecked havoc on 22 of Karnataka's 30 districts. Lakhs of people have been displaced while the stark contrast between the relief and rehabilitation styles of BJP and non-BJP governments (since floods had ravaged the State last year too) is apparent to the voter. In addition is the fact that PM Modi didn't come visiting nor did he even cursorily tweet for Karnataka while he was fulsome in his support for Bihar which too faced flooding. Most voters are seething that they have been taken for granted after gifting away 26 seats out of 28 to BJP.
The third and most important is the nation's mood against party-hoppers. Alpesh Thakor, INC MLA from Radhanpur, Gujarat switched sides and joined BJP 2 years after being elected as Congress MLA. He was accommodated in the Rupani Cabinet and convinced his close aide Dhawalsinh Jhala to follow suit.
Both lost their seats to Congressmen. Nearly a thousand kilometers away in Satara, Maharashtra, Udayanraje Bhonsale who was elected on an NCP ticket resigned his seat and joined the BJP to recontest as a BJP candidate. He too was trounced. Belgaum District of Karnataka which is the epicentre of the disqualification drama with ring leader Ramesh Jarkhiholi contesting from Gokak is just a couple of hundred kilometers away from Satara, if voters are ad idem, BJP is indeed going to get a sound thrashing!
(Brijesh Kalappa is an advocate in the Supreme Court and spokesman of the Congress party)
