New Delhi: As the final act of a long, rancorous and incendiary campaign for the Lok Sabha polls concluded, the saffron slogan “Ab ki bar 400 paar” could possibly be eluding the BJP-led NDA. While the BJP seemed confident of returning to power for the third consecutive time, low voter turnouts and factional fights in the hinterland have etched deep worry lines across the saffron forehead. Sources revealed that before the sixth phase, senior BJP leaders and chief ministers held a meeting to assess the party's performance and decided to go all out to woo voters and galvanise party workers in the last remaining phases. Both the BJP and INDIA alliances are going all out to attract voters in Purvanchal (eastern Uttar Pradesh) in the hinterland in the last phase of polling on Saturday. Analysts have indicated that unless the Opposition manages to dent the BJP’s sway over the Hindi heartland, the party is poised to romp home comfortably.
Of the 225 Lok Sabha seats in the Hindi heartland, the BJP had won 119 seats in 2019. As many as 57 Lok Sabha constituencies in eight states, including Bihar, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha, Punjab and the Union territory of Chandigarh will go to the polls in the seventh and final phase on Saturday. Polling for the remaining 42 Assembly constituencies in Odisha will also take place simultaneously.
Despite its confidence about returning to power, the BJP’s campaign underwent a significant transformation after the first two phases. Sensing that the anticipated enthusiasm for the construction of the Ram Mandir had not materialised and the development narrative (Viksit Bharat) had failed to gain traction with voters, the BJP pivoted sharply towards a more polarised approach. The party chose the Hindi heartland, the stronghold of Hindu nationalism, to launch a frontal attack on the minority community.
However, on the eve of the last phase of polling, opinion appears to be divided within the saffron camp over its electoral performance in Uttar Pradesh. While a section of BJP leaders fear that the party could lose at least 10-15 Lok Sabha seats in UP, others maintained it would “yet again decimate the Opposition and bag nearly 70 seats in the state”. The Opposition, on the other hand, has been claiming that “there’s a silent wave in favour of the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party”. Besides the Muslim consolidation in favour of the INDIA bloc, a section of political experts felt the SP could also eat into the Jatav and non-Jatav vote banks of the Bahujan Samaj Party. During the 2019 general election, the BJP had won 62 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP.
While Rahul Gandhi’s victory in Rae Bareli appears to be a foregone conclusion, speculation is rife over the high-profile Amethi Lok Sabha seat, where BJP firebrand Smriti Irani is pitted against the Congress’ K.L. Sharma. The BJP strategists who initially predicted a “comfortable win” for Ms Irani are now talking of a “close fight”. On Saturday, all eyes will be on Varanasi, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi is facing a challenge from Congress state unit president Ajay Rai. In 2014, Mr Modi decimated the AAP’s Arvind Kejriwal by winning by a margin of around 3,70,000 votes. In 2019, Mr Modi trounced Samajwadi Party’s Shalini Yadav by over 4,50,000 votes. Thirteen Lok Sabha seats, including Mr Modi’s Varanasi, will go to the polls in the final phase in UP on Saturday.
Delhi, with seven Lok Sabha seats, has emerged as a high-stakes battleground for the BJP after the arrest of Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal in the liquor policy “scam” and his subsequent release on interim bail. A section of BJP leaders felt the move to arrest Mr Kejriwal before the elections could “adversely affect” the BJP’s 7-0 tally.
Unlike 2019, the BJP is apparently struggling to retain its clean sweep in Rajasthan. During the last general election, the BJP won 24 of the 25 Lok Sabha seats in the desert state. One seat was won by BJP ally Rashtriya Loktantrik Party. If BJP insiders are believed, due to factional fights, the BJP was “struggling in at least four seats”. A section of party leaders pointed fingers at the BJP’s former chief minister, Vasundhara Raje, for “quietly sabotaging” the party’s prospects in the state. Similar predictions were being made by saffron spin doctors in Haryana, where the party is in trouble in at least two seats. In 2019, the BJP won all the 10 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana.
In Bihar, while the BJP is expected to “retain” most of the 17 seats it won during the 2019 polls, its ally, Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), could be slipping down the ladder. Sources revealed the JD(U) was struggling to retain the 16 seats it won last time. “Nitish’s loss could affect the NDA overall tally,” a senior BJP leader said.
Ahead of the elections, some opinion polls had given an edge to the BJP in West Bengal. The Trinamul Congress managed to catch up as the polls closed in. However, the sudden resurgence of the CPI(M) in West Bengal seems to have complicated the electoral strategies of both the BJP and the TMC. The CPI(M)’s growing influence threatens to erode the voter base of both outfits. In 2019, while the CPI(M) failed to open its account, the TMC won 22 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in the state. The BJP stunned political pundits by winning 18 seats. The Congress won the remaining two seats.
Nine Lok Sabha seats going to the polls in West Bengal on Saturday were won by the TMC in the last general election. The Lok Sabha seats going to polls in the last phase are Kolkata (Uttar), Kolkata (Dakshin), Jadavpur, Diamond Harbour, Barasat, Bashirhat, Jaynagar, Dum Dum and Mathurapur. While BJP leaders claimed the party would improve its tally by winning at least 22 Lok Sabha berths, the TMC was confident of reducing BJP to a “single digit”.
In Odisha, with 21 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP won eight seats, BJD 12 and Congress one in 2019. The BJP is not only confident of increasing its tally but some leaders claim it “will win at least 19 Lok Sabha seats”.
Things look somewhat tricky for the BJP in Maharashtra, with 48 Lok Sabha seats. This could also be the state that could make or break the BJP’s chase for a brute majority. In 2019, with the Shiv Sena as its ally, the BJP-led NDA won 41 Lok Sabha berths. After Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena split with the BJP and formed a government with secular parties, the BJP was accused of masterminding a split in both the Shiv Sena and the NCP. Local BJP leaders said after the Uddhav Thackeray government was toppled, public sympathy “is shifting towards the Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party”. Party insiders suggest that leveraging Prime Minister Modi’s popularity and influence “is crucial” for the BJP to challenge the “rising support” for Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar.
Of the 13 Lok Sabha seats in Punjab, the BJP is “struggling hard” to retain its two Lok Sabha berths, which the party won in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
If the BJP has to retain its 2019 tally of 303 of 543 Lok Sabha seats or increase its numbers, it must not only retain its grip on the Hindi belt and the western and eastern parts of the country, but also eat into the Opposition’s vote bank in South India. A fierce battle is raging between the BJP and the Opposition to win a majority of 130 seats in this region.
Of 28 Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka, the BJP had won 25 in 2019. But with a strong Congress government in the state, the BJP is facing a tough fight in at least five to seven seats, a party leader said. Of 17 Lok Sabha seats in Telangana, the BJP “hopes” to improve its tally from four to 10 seats. In Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala, the BJP has repeatedly failed to make any inroads. In Tamil Nadu, relying heavily on the performance of state unit chief K. Annamalai, a former IPS officer, the BJP is trying to counter the DMK’s sub-nationalism with its brand of cultural nationalism. In Andhra Pradesh, while the BJP is trying to reap electoral gain by latching on to N. Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP, the Congress, led by Y.S. Sharmila, sister of YSRCP leader Jagan Mohan Reddy, is looking for a revival. In UDF and LDF-dominated Kerala, the BJP has pinned its hope on two Lok Sabha berths -- Thrissur and Thiruvananthapuram -- where the party has fielded actor Suresh Gopi and Union minister of state Rajeev Chandrasekhar respectively.
