Modi's Third Term: Navigating New Political Realities and the Resilience of Indian Democracy
The 2024 general elections in India have unfolded a dynamic and multifaceted political landscape, ushering in Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a third consecutive term. This achievement, paralleled only by Jawaharlal Nehru, is underscored by unique technicalities: Modi's tenure marks the first time an elected Prime Minister may complete three consecutive terms, as Nehru's initial term was by appointment and his final term was not complete. The BJP's electoral performance, marked by a significant decline in parliamentary seats and vote share, reveals underlying shifts in voter sentiment and the evolving nature of Indian democracy.
The BJP's seat count in the Lok Sabha fell from 303 in 2019 to 240 in 2024, a loss of 63 seats. This decrease in parliamentary strength is mirrored by a 1.14% drop in vote share, signalling a palpable shift in voter sentiment. The Indian National Congress (INC), on the other hand, saw a resurgence, increasing its seats from 57 to 99 and its vote share by 1.73%. These changes highlight a significant reconfiguration of the political landscape, driven by multiple factors, including regional dynamics, agrarian discontent, and evolving public priorities.
Regional Dynamics and Agrarian Discontent
The BJP's electoral setbacks were most pronounced in states like Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra. In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP secured only 33 out of 80 seats, a dramatic decline from its previous tally of 62. Similarly, in Maharashtra, the BJP won just 33 out of 48 seats, with the Congress emerging as the largest party with 13 seats. These losses underscore the complex and often unpredictable nature of regional politics in India.
A significant factor contributing to the BJP's diminished performance was widespread agrarian discontent. The party lost substantial support in regions affected by farmer protests, particularly in western Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, and parts of Maharashtra. The BJP's handling of the farmers' demands and subsequent protests, including incidents of violence against protestors, alienated a crucial voter base. The defeat of Union Minister of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare Arjun Munda in Jharkhand epitomizes the electorate’s disapproval and the broader agrarian distress influencing voter behaviour.
Strategic Alliances and the Role of Coalition Politics
The opposition, led by the INC under Rahul Gandhi, strategically aligned with various regional parties to consolidate anti-BJP votes. This alliance, referred to as the INDI, played a pivotal role in several states, broadening the appeal of Congress and its partners. By accommodating coalition partners and focusing on local issues, the opposition managed to present a formidable challenge to the BJP. The success of state-level parties, such as the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh and the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, further diluted the BJP’s vote share and highlighted the continuing importance of regional dynamics in national elections.
With 240 seats, the BJP fell short of the 272 majority mark required to form the government independently. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), of which the BJP is the leading party, must now rely heavily on its coalition partners to secure a governing majority. Key allies such as the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) led by Chandrababu Naidu and Janata Dal (United) led by Nitish Kumar hold critical leverage with their respective seat counts. This coalition dependency contrasts sharply with Modi’s previous terms, where the BJP enjoyed a clear majority.
According to constitutional protocol, the President of India has invited the parliamentary leader of the party with the most seats to form the government. This new government must be established before June 16, when the term of the 17th Lok Sabha concludes. Modi, having resigned, is currently heading a caretaker government until the new coalition is formally in place.
Electoral Highlights and Notable Outcomes
The 2024 elections were marked by several notable outcomes and trends. Approximately 64 crore votes were counted, up from 60.4 crore in the previous election, including 1.82 crore first-time voters. In a striking display of voter dissent, the Indore constituency recorded over 2 lakh NOTA (None of the Above) votes—the largest in India's history since the option was introduced in 2013. This reflects a growing frustration among voters with the available choices.
Close contests were also a hallmark of this election, with two seats won by margins of less than 1,000 votes. In Attingal, Kerala, the winning margin was 684 votes, while in Mumbai North-West, the margin was a mere 48 votes. These narrow victories underscore the intense competition and the high stakes involved in these elections.
The BJP made significant inroads in the southern states, traditionally resistant to its appeal. For the first time, the party secured seats in Kerala and Andhra Pradesh. However, these gains were insufficient to compensate for losses in other regions, illustrating the complexity of India's regional politics. In Tamil Nadu, despite failing to win any seats, the BJP significantly increased its vote share from 3.7% in 2019 to 11.24%.
In the state assembly elections, the BJP achieved notable successes. In Odisha, the party secured 78 out of 147 seats, defeating the Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal (BJD), which had ruled the state for 24 years. Additionally, the BJP won all 21 Lok Sabha seats in Odisha. In Andhra Pradesh, the TDP, led by Chandrababu Naidu, secured a landslide victory with 135 out of 175 seats, with its coalition partners, Janasena Party and BJP, winning 21 and 11 seats respectively.
Modi's Leadership and the Challenges Ahead
Prime Minister Modi's leadership style, often characterized by decisive and unilateral decision-making, has faced increasing scrutiny. His portrayal as a near-divine figure, while resonating with some segments of the electorate, failed to address the tangible issues affecting many voters, such as employment, inflation, and agrarian distress. Modi’s sidelining of senior BJP leaders like L.K. Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi created internal rifts, complicating the party's electoral strategy. His majority has fallen drastically in Varanasi while the Congress party was able to win seats including Ameti and Raebareli with a comfortable share of votes.
As Modi prepares to lead a coalition government, the challenges ahead are manifold. Balancing the interests of diverse allies, addressing public grievances, and fostering inclusive development will be key to regaining the trust and support of the electorate. The BJP’s reduced majority necessitates a more collaborative and inclusive approach to governance, with greater reliance on coalition partners.
The Resilience of Indian Democracy
The 2024 election results serve as a testament to the resilience of Indian democracy. Despite the Modi government’s decade-long control over key levers of power and its extensive political marketing, the electorate demonstrated the importance of addressing ground-level issues and regional dynamics. The rejuvenation of the opposition and the vibrant electoral participation reflect the dynamism of India’s democracy, where no single party can rest on its laurels for long.
This evolution of coalition politics and regional dynamics will continue to shape the future of India's democracy, underscoring the importance of inclusive and responsive governance. Modi's third term, marked by coalition politics and a reinvigorated opposition, highlights the need for a more nuanced and collaborative approach to leadership. As India navigates these new political realities, the strength and adaptability of its democratic institutions will be crucial in ensuring a stable and prosperous future.
— Amal Chandra is an Author, Political Analyst, & Regular Columnist.
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