Thiruvnanthapuram: While the LDF leadership has tried to put up a brave face after their rout in the recent Lok Sabha polls in Kerala, the reports emanating from the ground suggest that the ruling front will have to slog hard to regain its lost ground.
Many left leaders though maintain that the defeat in Lok Sabha election results is unlikely to negatively impact their party's chances in the 2026 assembly elections. They cite the example of the 2021 assembly elections which were held two years after the 2019 Lok Sabha polls when the LDF faced a similar rout winning just one seat. Many then thought the trend would continue till the assembly elections in 2021. However, LDF swept the polls winning 99 of the 140 seats. This victory also marked a record for consecutive wins by any state government in assembly elections since 1970.
In Kerala, the Lok Sabha results have very little impact on the assembly polls, and Left leadership anticipates a similar situation this time as well.
However, observers believe that the political situation in the state has undergone a notable change since 2021 especially after the BJP opened its account in Thrissur and registered a lead in 11 constituencies.
Besides, the party came second in nine assembly segments spread across five districts and third in 10 assembly constituencies. This indicates that the BJP has the potential to emerge as the decisive force in as many as 30 seats.
Previously, the Congress was weak at the national level, but after the recent Lok Sabha polls, it has nearly doubled its seats and led the India Alliance in limiting BJP's seats to below 272. The Lok Sabha momentum could help the Congress-led UDF to get back the section of voters who got alienated in the last couple of years.
Many top CPM leaders maintain that their vote share has not dropped significantly in most constituencies. “We did not make a gain in the Lok Sabha polls as expected. But there was no significant damage in terms of a drop in overall vote share,” said LDF convenor E P Jayarajan.
He said it is wrong to hold Pinarayi Vijayan government’s performance responsible for the electoral debacle. The drop in vote share in some of the strongholds cannot be construed as an erosion of the traditional Left vote base, he said and claimed that the people of Kerala were strongly opposed to the Hindutva brand of politics.
However, Left fellow travellers say the LDF leadership needs to do a serious introspection about the reasons behind the electoral rout. They feel that instead of being satisfied with the stable vote share, the Left should look to attract new voters to win seats.
Moreover, they believe such flawed assessments will deprive the leadership of identifying grey areas and taking corrective measures.
The Left sympathisers argue that a thorough and objective assessment of the electoral setback is necessary. Key issues such as corruption involving cooperative banks amounting to crores of rupees, the tragic death of a veterinary university student due to alleged ragging by SFI activists, the underperformance of certain ministers, and delays in the disbursement of social welfare pensions, have led to the alienation of a significant segment of the voting population.
They say the LDF cannot afford to be complacent as the upcoming assembly by-elections, which were necessitated by the victories of Minister K Radhakrishnan (Alathur) and Congress leader Shafi Parambil (Palakkad), are scheduled to be held in a few months. Radhakrishnan is the current MLA from Chelakkara, while Shafi Parambil represents Palakkad.
Additionally, Rahul Gandhi, who won from Raebareli and Wayanad constituencies, is likely to vacate the latter. In that case, a by-election will soon be due in Wayanad.
With less than two years remaining before the critical local bodies poll and assembly polls, the ruling LDF will need to take immediate corrective actions to regain the lost ground.
