Any examination of the Modi government’s first two years should be done from three perspectives — first, to assess his political evaluation in dealing with allies and adversaries; second, the Modi government must be measured for the work it has done and to study the gap, if any, between promise and delivery; and finally, we should explore what strategies the PM and his team need to use in order to win in 2019. Mr Modi came into office with his own strengths and weaknesses. Has he succeeded in removing the weaknesses and reinforcing the strengths? One of his biggest weaknesses was his perceived inability to work with others. Mr Modi believed in a more forceful style — “to make an adversary an offer which he can’t refuse” — and disliked coalitions.
His own party secured a clear majority in the LS but it still remains a political partnership. Mr Modi needed to learn how to work effectively with the Opposition. Barring the odd leader of a rival party, Mr Modi and his aides do not have friends outside the saffron camp. But his failure to secure the cooperation of the Opposition is more his loss, because incumbents have to seek a fresh mandate on the basis of their own accomplishments. In 2019, Mr Modi cannot say that he couldn’t deliver because the Congress did not cooperate!
Mr Modi came to power promising vikas and badlav (development and transformation). But the biggest change came in the social sphere, in which India’s pluralism came under attack. The damage that this has caused to the Indian polity poses a threat to the unity of the country. About badlav, there are questions on which of the minor changes actually has Mr Modi’s imprint. As CM, Mr Modi could maintain tight control over the Gujarat government, but while it could work in a small state, this style is hard to replicate at the national level. South Block was mobilised immediately after Mr Modi took charge, and the victories in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand were seen as proof of the success of this strategy.
But the setbacks in 2015 led to a change in strategy in Assam, and should indicate that centralisation of power does not always work. But no basic changes have been made in the functioning of the government. Though officials have clear-cut roles in the PMO, no one has ownership. Mr Modi continues to come up with good ideas. Jan Dhan Yojana, Swachchh Bharat, Make in India and Namami Gange are just some. The success with financial inclusion and the failure of Swachchh Bharat are indicative of Mr Modi’s strengths and weaknesses. Delegating authority does not come easily to the PM.
Instead of raising the number of stakeholders, Mr Modi’s approach is to reduce them. The bureaucracy was initially enthusiastic that the government will give officers an opportunity to think after outsourcing the job to the National Advisory Council in the UPA years. But after realising that contemplation is reserved for just a few, the officers go through the motions as any initiative may threaten their seniors.
Mr Modi set the ball rolling in Gujarat by bypassing the system. This may have been possible at the state level, it is not feasible in Delhi. Mr Modi has got bogged down in a bureaucratic maze, and he may have to unlearn some lessons he learnt in Gandhinagar. Mr Modi has offered us a peep into his possible electoral plank ahead of 2019 by stressing initiatives like girl child education, Swachchh Bharat, construction of toilets in schools and homes, Jan Dhan Yojana, Digital India, rural electrification and the soil health card.
These are all good schemes but it is uncertain how far they will win votes. For that he must generate jobs. As Mr Modi prepares for a crucial year ahead, he must infuse the spirit of the Assam campaign in his government. Mr Modi gave other leaders a lot of leeway in Assam, and similarly he should delegate authority to his colleagues to get things going. Crucial elections are due in 2017, and in UP and Gujarat he may be tempted to opt again for the “proxy CM” model. But this may eventually choke his chances of winning in 2019.
